41 Gage Hill Dr

Lake Luzerne, NY 12846

$319,900C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,965/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$344
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $321/mo
• Annual: $3,855/yr
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.30%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $89,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $297k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#682 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hadley-Luzerne Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #396 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hadley-Luzerne Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 304 students, 54% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 49% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hadley-Luzerne Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $320k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $90k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.