41 Gage Hill Dr · Lake Luzerne, NY 12846

$319,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1970 0.55 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ranch style home built in 1970 and offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, 1212 sq ft, partial unfinished basement, private utilities, situated on 0.55 acres, located in Hadley-Luzerne.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• Close to lake george
• 0.55 acre lot

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• CLOSE TO LAKE LUZERNE
• CLOSE TO LAKE GEORGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Five parking spaces total; Off-street parking on a stone driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Clapboard and drywall construction; Built on block foundation
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Screened patio/porch; Barn; Shed(s); Garden; Outdoor lighting; Partial perimeter fencing around the backyard; Private, cleared, irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Tile; Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and propane heating; Central air with AC pump
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Skylight(s); Screens and shutters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#682 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hadley-Luzerne Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #396 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hadley-Luzerne Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 304 students, 54% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 49% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hadley-Luzerne Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $90k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $320k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $296,514 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.30%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,592
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41 Gage Hill Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,212 (0%)	19mo	$140,000	$116	84
26 Gage Hill Dr	0.06mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,134 (-6%)	1mo	$130,000	$115	79
64 Vanare Ln	0.18mi	2/1.0	1,137 (-6%)	17mo	$295,000	$259	67
26 Gage Hill Dr	0.06mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,134 (-6%)	18mo	$95,000	$84	65
39 Woodward Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,215 (+0%)	23mo	$450,000	$370	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $194,614
• Equity at exit: $288,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.22×
• Total profit: $556,875
• Equity at exit: $621,495

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12846

• Home prices YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,524/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,559

Max offer price $319,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $502	-5% $412	+0% $321	+5% $231	+10% $140
Rent	-10% $87	-5% $204	+0% $321	+5% $438	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $482	-0.5pp $403	base $321	+0.5pp $238	+1.0pp $154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,900 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $319,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $337,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $337,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $337,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $337,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $337,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $337,900 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $337,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $337,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $337,900 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $337,900 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    listed $337,900 Active
17. 2025-12-19
    historical
18. 2025-12-19
    price $337,900
19. 2025-09-23
    price $255,000
20. 2025-09-12
    listed $285,000 Active
21. 2024-11-25
    soldstatus $140,000
22. 2024-11-22
    soldstatus $140,000 Closed 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Ranch style home built in 1970 and offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, 1212 sq ft, partial unfinished basement, private utilities, situated on 0.55 acres, located in Hadley-Luzerne.

23. 2024-11-08
    status Pending 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Ranch style home built in 1970 and offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, 1212 sq ft, partial unfinished basement, private utilities, situated on 0.55 acres, located in Hadley-Luzerne.

24. 2024-10-22
    listed $140,000 Active 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Ranch style home built in 1970 and offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, 1212 sq ft, partial unfinished basement, private utilities, situated on 0.55 acres, located in Hadley-Luzerne.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,524 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,965 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,441/yr (+$120/mo · 57.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$2,524
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,847
• − Management: −$2,847
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$1,460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$351
• After-tax cash flow: $4,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hadley-Luzerne Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,974
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3292
• State rank: #396 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Luzerne

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #682
• US rank: #12851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,007

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 10% German 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.73%
• Current HPI: 336.2179
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+141.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $337,900 Global MLS
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $337,900 Global MLS
• 2025-12-19 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $255,000 Global MLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $285,000 Global MLS
• 2024-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2024-11-22 Sold (MLS) $140,000 Global MLS
• 2024-11-08 Pending — Global MLS
• 2024-10-22 Listed $140,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,524 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.