55 Fern Ridge Dr

Spout Springs, NC 28326

$304,500F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,142 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,318/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,597
• Tax + insurance: −$508
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-273/mo
• Annual: $-3,281/yr
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.85%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $85,260

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $304k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-273 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (23.9% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $232k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Benhaven Elementary (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #459 of 1,410 statewide, top 33%, 1,030 students, 45% FRL); Highland Middle (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #256 of 475 statewide, top 55%, 875 students, 64% FRL); Western Harnett High (math 57% / reading 58%, grade C, #245 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,386 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Harnett County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 12104% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $304k implies a 712% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.2% in Spout Springs — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.