55 Fern Ridge Dr · Spout Springs, NC 28326

$304,500

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,142 sqft · Land · 57 Days on market

Built 2025 0.58 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NO HOA! Our beautiful move-in ready 4-bedroom Forsyth plan offers the perfect combination of space, style, and flexibility. The bright, open floor plan features a gourmet kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a seamless flow into the dining and living areas—ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. On the main level, enjoy a dedicated office or flex room—perfect for working from home, hobbies, or a quiet retreat. The spacious primary suite includes a large walk-in closet and a private bath with a walk-in shower. Upstairs, a huge loft provides even more space for a game room, second office, or additional living area. Two roomy secondary bedrooms

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Dedicated office
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• HUGE LOFT
• PRIVATE WOODED HOMESITE

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $304k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-273 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.2% in Spout Springs — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Benhaven Elementary (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #459 of 1,410 statewide, top 33%, 1,030 students, 45% FRL); Highland Middle (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #256 of 475 statewide, top 55%, 875 students, 64% FRL); Western Harnett High (math 57% / reading 58%, grade C, #245 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,386 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Harnett County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 12104% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $304k implies a 712% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $231,766 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.85%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-66,835
• Equity at exit: $45,402

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-80,955
• Equity at exit: $26,328

Cash invested: $85,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28326

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,318 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,597
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,568/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,664

Max offer price $264,942

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-63	-5% $-168	+0% $-273	+5% $-379	+10% $-484
Rent	-10% $-456	-5% $-365	+0% $-273	+5% $-182	+10% $-90
Rate	-1.0pp $-120	-0.5pp $-196	base $-273	+0.5pp $-352	+1.0pp $-433

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,125
• Closing costs: $9,135
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45 Summit Ct Cameron, NC	3.0	2.0	1683	$1,900	$1.13	25d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2025-12-05
   historical $2,495
2. 2025-12-02
   status Pending
3. 2025-11-26
   listed $2,495
4. 2025-11-25
   price $304,500
5. 2025-10-27
   price $329,990
6. 2025-10-06
   listed $339,502 Active
7. 2025-10-04
   historical
8. 2025-06-16
   listed $338,907 Active
9. 2025-06-02
   listed $338,907 Active
10. 2025-05-22
    historical
11. 2025-05-13
    soldstatus $37,500 Closed
12. 2025-05-01
    listed $269,990 Active
13. 2025-02-27
    status Pending
14. 2025-01-17
    status Active
15. 2024-12-09
    historical
16. 2024-12-05
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,057
• − Property taxes: −$4,568
• − Insurance: −$1,522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,225
• − Management: −$2,225
• − Depreciation: −$8,858
• Taxable loss: −$8,643
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,074
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

Livability — Spout Springs

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 26,068
• Household income: $75,431
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 456.0

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.96%
• Current HPI: 226.8295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-95.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Rental Removed $2,495 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-12-02 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed for Rent $2,495 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $304,500 LPRMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $329,990 LPRMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $339,502 LPRMLS
• 2025-10-04 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-06-16 Listed $338,907 LPRMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $338,907 TMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-05-13 Sold (MLS) $37,500 LPRMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $269,990 TMLS
• 2025-02-27 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2025-01-17 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2024-12-09 Delisted — LPRMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed $50,000 LPRMLS