245 E Orleans St E

Paxton, IL 60957

$117,500C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,345 sqft · Built 1900 · Other · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,298/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$616
• Tax + insurance: −$336
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $73/mo
• Annual: $878/yr
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.67%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $32,900

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $118k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($878/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $118k).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $812 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#316 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Paxton-Buckley-Loda CUD 10 (town): math 33% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #232 of 620 in IL (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Ford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ford County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $118k implies a 292% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.3% in Paxton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.