245 E Orleans St E · Paxton, IL 60957

$117,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,345 sqft · Other public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1900 0.28 ac lot $50/sqft · 29% below area Est $166k · 29% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a very large house, there is as many as 5 or 6 bedrooms, as well as 2 full bathrooms. The home has been a duplex in its past. The 2nd floor kitchen has been removed. There has been a lot of repairs completed over the past year, there's a lot of potential with just a little more work, come take a look! Property being sold as is.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($878/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.3% in Paxton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#316 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Paxton-Buckley-Loda CUD 10 (town): math 33% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #232 of 620 in IL (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Ford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $812 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ford County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $118k implies a 292% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $106,925 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.67%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,952
• List price: $117,500
• Delta: -29.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-14,273
• Equity at exit: $17,520

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-5,996
• Equity at exit: $10,159

Cash invested: $32,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60957

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,298 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$616
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,448/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,206

Max offer price $117,500

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $106	+0% $73	+5% $40	+10% $7
Rent	-10% $-29	-5% $22	+0% $73	+5% $124	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $132	-0.5pp $103	base $73	+0.5pp $43	+1.0pp $12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,375
• Closing costs: $3,525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $117,500 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $117,500 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $117,500 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $117,500 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $117,500 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $117,500 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $117,500 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $117,500 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $117,500 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $117,500 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $117,500 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $117,500 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $117,500 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $117,500 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $117,500 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $117,500 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    This is a very large house, there is as many as 5 or 6 bedrooms, as well as 2 full bathrooms. The home has been a duplex in its past. The 2nd floor kitchen has been removed. There has been a lot of repairs completed over the past year, there's a lot of potential with just a little more work, come take a look! Property being sold as is.

17. 2026-03-11
    listed $125,000 Active 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    This is a very large house, there is as many as 5 or 6 bedrooms, as well as 2 full bathrooms. The home has been a duplex in its past. The 2nd floor kitchen has been removed. There has been a lot of repairs completed over the past year, there's a lot of potential with just a little more work, come take a look! Property being sold as is.

18. 2024-04-05
    soldstatus $30,000 Closed 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investment. Please note home needs a lot of work. Could also be a duplex. Room dimensions are not accurate.

19. 2024-03-15
    status Pending 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investment. Please note home needs a lot of work. Could also be a duplex. Room dimensions are not accurate.

20. 2024-02-28
    listed $34,700 Active 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investment. Please note home needs a lot of work. Could also be a duplex. Room dimensions are not accurate.

21. 2024-02-28
    historical

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investment. Please note home needs a lot of work. Could also be a duplex. Room dimensions are not accurate.

22. 2024-02-28
    historical

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investment. Please note home needs a lot of work. Could also be a duplex. Room dimensions are not accurate.

23. 2024-02-09
    price
24. 2024-02-09
    price
25. 2023-12-19
    price
26. 2023-12-19
    price
27. 2023-10-20
    price
28. 2023-10-20
    price
29. 2023-10-13
    price
30. 2023-10-13
    price
31. 2023-09-05
    price
32. 2023-09-05
    price
33. 2023-07-25
    price
34. 2023-07-19
    price
35. 2023-05-05
    price
36. 2023-05-05
    price
37. 2023-02-07
    listed Active
38. 2023-02-07
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,448 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,448 · $287/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,582
• − Property taxes: −$3,448
• − Insurance: −$588
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,246
• − Management: −$1,246
• − Depreciation: −$3,418
• Taxable loss: −$949
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$228
• After-tax cash flow: $1,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paxton-Buckley-Loda CUD 10
• NCES district ID: 1707650
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,233
• Composite: 27.27/100
• National rank: #7007
• State rank: #232 of 620 in IL

Livability — Paxton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #316
• US rank: #6283

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paxton, IL
• Population (ZIP): 5,620

Population outlook (Ford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,044 people
• By 2030: 12,607 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 11,716 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 10,836 · -16.9%
• By 2075: 9,328 · -28.5%
• By 2100: 7,803 · -40.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.9) · D 25.1% · R 73.0% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -29.0pp · 2024: -47.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.9 2020: R+47.3 2016: R+48.7 2012: R+42.9 2008: R+29.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.59%
• Current HPI: 153.0624
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+238.6% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $117,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $125,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-05 Sold (MLS) $30,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-15 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-28 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-28 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-28 Listed $34,700 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-09 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-09 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-19 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-19 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-20 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-20 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-13 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-13 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-05 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-05 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-25 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-19 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-05 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-05 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-07 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-07 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,448 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.