1161 Shallowford St

Bowling Green, KY 42102

$274,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,395 sqft · Built 2025 · Other · Active · 188 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,946/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$458
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-363/mo
• Annual: $-4,352/yr
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.65%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $76,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (29.2% below list).
• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Warren County (rural): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #48 of 165 in KY (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,286 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (1,410 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Bowling Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.