1161 Shallowford St · Bowling Green, KY 42102

$274,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,395 sqft · Other · 188 Days on market

Built 2025 6,970 sqft lot $197/sqft · 9% below area Est $303k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SAVE UP TO $17,500 WITH COMBINED BUILDER AND PREFERRED LENDER INCENTIVES+ 10 YEAR EXTENDED WARRANTY! Mix and match your savings to customize your purchase. The perfect floor plan to call home. .. 3 bed, 2 bath in the South Warren school district with an open concept floor plan, 2 car attached garage and a large covered back porch on a tree lined lot! The great room flows beautifully into the dining space and gorgeous airy kitchen with a 6 foot island. .. .as well as a huge walk in pantry! This beautifully built home is waiting just for you!

Key facts

• Huge walk in pantry
• Tree lined lot
• 6,970 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE COVERED BACK PORCH
• TREE LINED LOT
• HUGE WALK IN PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Bowling Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Warren County (rural): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #48 of 165 in KY (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,286 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (1,410 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $194,572 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.65%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,712
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: -5.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $10,048
• Equity at exit: $123,607

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $68,222
• Equity at exit: $190,493

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42102

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,124/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,405

Max offer price $222,423

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1156 Shallowford St Bowling Green, KY	4.0	2.0	1616	$2,200	$1.36	43d	1	0.07mi
317 Cedar Run St Bowling Green, KY	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,900	$1.31	43d	1	0.30mi
476 Cedar Hollow Dr Bowling Green, KY	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,100	$1.26	13d	1	0.41mi
428 Turkey Run Dr Bowling Green, KY	3.0	2.0	1688	$1,900	$1.13	43d	1	0.42mi
1184 County House Ln Bowling Green, KY	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	43d	1	0.45mi
360 Cedar Hollow Dr Bowling Green, KY	3.0	1.0	1349	$1,600	$1.19	43d	1	0.54mi
6567 Nashville Rd Bowling Green, KY	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	13d	1	0.56mi
6461 Fortuna Ave Bowling Green, KY	3.0	2.0	1329	$1,850	$1.39	43d	1	0.70mi
6481 Fortuna Ave Bowling Green, KY	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,895	$1.15	43d	1	0.73mi
6530 Fortuna Ave Unit 1 Bowling Green, KY	3.0	2.5	1250	$1,650	$1.32	21d	1	0.77mi
442 Bourbon St Bowling Green, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,500	$1.51	13d	11	1.07mi
3216 S Oak St Bowling Green, KY	4.0	2.5	1788	$2,295	$1.28	43d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $274,900 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on market $274,900 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,900 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,900 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,900 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $284,900 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,900 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $284,900 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,900 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $284,900 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $284,900 Active 176 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $284,900 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,900 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,900 Active 170 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,900 Active 169 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $284,900 Active 168 DOM
17. 2025-12-13
    listed $284,900 Active 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    SAVE UP TO $17,500 WITH COMBINED BUILDER AND PREFERRED LENDER INCENTIVES+ 10 YEAR EXTENDED WARRANTY! Mix and match your savings to customize your purchase. The perfect floor plan to call home. .. 3 bed, 2 bath in the South Warren school district with an open concept floor plan, 2 car attached garage and a large covered back porch on a tree lined lot! The great room flows beautifully into the dining space and gorgeous airy kitchen with a 6 foot island. .. .as well as a huge walk in pantry! This beautifully built home is waiting just for you!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$4,124
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$9,281
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,227
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County
• NCES district ID: 2105730
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $50,092
• Composite: 31.55/100
• National rank: #5958
• State rank: #48 of 165 in KY

Livability — Bowling Green

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #12782

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

No demographic data for this ZIP.

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-13 Listed $284,900 RASKMLS