16218 Mcgregor Dr

Wilson-Conococheague, MD 21740

$140,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,665/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$35
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $420/mo
• Annual: $5,035/yr
• Cap rate: 9.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.84%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Washingtion County Public Schools (suburban): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #13 of 24 in MD (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Clear Spring Middle (math 14% / reading 40%, grade F, #81 of 225 statewide, top 38%, 329 students, 49% FRL); Clear Spring High (math 62% / reading 77%, grade B, #40 of 222 statewide, top 19%, 451 students, 49% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 26% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Washingtion County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 232 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $140k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.