16218 Mcgregor Dr · Wilson-Conococheague, MD 21740

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1991 5,500 sqft lot $133/sqft · 14% below area Est $163k · 14% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious double-wide home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Step into a bright and inviting living room with luxury vinyl plank flooring. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and opens to a large dining area, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The owner’s suite includes a private full bathroom, while bedrooms two and three are generously sized and share a second full bath. Enjoy outdoor living with a fenced yard and a storage shed. Private parking included. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, and major highways.

Key facts

• 5,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1991
• Listed 45 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $209 collected semi-annually

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas; Electric hot water
• Home design: Detached structure; Modular/manufactured frame construction with vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Single-story living (main-level bedrooms and baths)
• Construction: Frame and modular/manufactured construction; Vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Building not winterized
• Exterior features: Detached shed on the property; Not in a federal flood zone; Blacktop road access; Outside city limits (Hagerstown municipality)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level (Living Room, Master Bedroom, Bedroom 2, Bedroom 3 listed)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fan(s) for cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Combination kitchen and dining area; Window treatments; Drywall walls and ceilings; Not furnished
• Laundry & utility: No basement (no below-grade finished area listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Washingtion County Public Schools (suburban): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #13 of 24 in MD (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Clear Spring Middle (math 14% / reading 40%, grade F, #81 of 225 statewide, top 38%, 329 students, 49% FRL); Clear Spring High (math 62% / reading 77%, grade B, #40 of 222 statewide, top 19%, 451 students, 49% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 26% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Washingtion County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 232 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $140k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.84%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,827
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -14.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12023 Heather Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	13mo	$90,000	$85	82
11925 Heather Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	9mo	$162,500	$154	81
12009 S Scottish Ct	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,064 (+1%)	8mo	$142,400	$134	78
12020 Heather Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	18mo	$130,000	$123	78
12110 Heather Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	22mo	$169,900	$161	76
12016 Heather Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	12mo	$162,000	$141	73
12025 N Scottish Ct	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	4mo	$145,000	$151	67
12036 N Scottish Ct	0.17mi	3/1.0	960 (-9%)	7mo	$145,000	$151	67
16212 Mcgregor Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	21mo	$150,000	$130	66
16301 Mcgregor Dr	0.14mi	3/1.5	960 (-9%)	13mo	$139,000	$145	65
16213 Dundee Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	23mo	$160,000	$139	62
16305 Ayrshire Ct	0.11mi	3/1.5	960 (-9%)	23mo	$130,000	$135	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,707
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $46,384
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21740

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,665 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $816/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,134

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $499	-5% $459	+0% $420	+5% $380	+10% $340
Rent	-10% $288	-5% $354	+0% $420	+5% $485	+10% $551
Rate	-1.0pp $490	-0.5pp $455	base $420	+0.5pp $383	+1.0pp $346

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11906 Heather Dr Hagerstown, MD	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,800	$1.34	23d	1	0.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: parking

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   pricedays on market $140,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $145,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $150,000 Active 558-char remark
18. 2026-05-05
    historical $150,000 558-char remark
19. 1999-03-02
    historical
20. 1998-12-15
    listed
21. 1991-10-30
    soldstatus $60,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $816 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,171 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$355/yr (+$30/mo · 43.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,975
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$816
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $2,929
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$703
• After-tax cash flow: $4,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washingtion County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400660
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $54,784
• Composite: 22.87/100
• National rank: #8007
• State rank: #13 of 24 in MD

Livability — Wilson-Conococheague

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilson-Conococheague, MD
• County: Washington County · 98,861 people
• Metro: Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 64,792
• Household income: $62,873
• Rent vs Own: 44.7% rent · 55.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2832.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 151,614 people
• By 2030: 151,455 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 150,097 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 148,193 · -2.3%
• By 2075: 146,581 · -3.3%
• By 2100: 138,025 · -9.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 18% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.3% · R 60.4% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.9pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+20.9 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+12.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.38%
• Current HPI: 264.8018
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+138.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Coming Soon $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-03-02 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-12-15 Listed — MRIS
• 1991-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $60,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $816 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.