1804 Glenthorne Rd

East Highland Park, VA 23222

$270,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,611 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,146/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-28/mo
• Annual: $-335/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.44%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-335/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (20.5% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $215k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#197 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Harvie Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,108 statewide, top 97%, 495 students, 90% FRL); L. Douglas Wilder Middle (math 47% / reading 51%, grade C-, #238 of 342 statewide, top 71%, 761 students, 89% FRL); Henrico High (math 44% / reading 74%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 1,348 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 34% district-wide (54 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Henrico County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 54% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $270k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.2% in East Highland Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.