3169 Aviamar Cir #102

Winding Cypress, FL 34114

$425,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,883 sqft · Built 2015 · Condo · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,773/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$1,254
• HOA: −$1,281
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,212
• Net cashflow: $-203/mo
• Annual: $-2,436/yr
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.25%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $389k (8.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $425k).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $387k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 905 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $296k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $5,773/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 550% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.