3169 Aviamar Cir #102 · Winding Cypress, FL 34114

$425,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,883 sqft · Condo public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2015 $1281/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy a first-floor end-unit coach home with beautiful lake views in the Village of Sonoma. This 3-bedroom residence has impact doors and impact windows throughout, lush landscaping and a brick paver driveway leading to the two-car garage. Inside features include recessed lighting and crown molding. The kitchen is equipped with stainless gas cooking appliances, granite countertops, a tile backsplash, pantry, breakfast bar and a dining area. The large living space includes a formal dining area and the living room. The owner's suite offers beautiful lake views, direct access to the lanai, two walk-in closets and an en-suite bath featuring a dual sink vanity, linen closet, deep soaking tub and a walk-in shower. The two guest bedrooms are in a separate and private area of the condominium. Additional features include a tankless water heater and extra storage closets. The living area overlooks and opens into the covered and oversized screened-in lanai, making it a great area to relax or entertain. A life of luxury is ensured in this residence, enhanced by the 54,000-square-foot club and spa, full-service spa, fitness center complete with personal trainers and fitness classes, 3 swimming pools, restaurants, championship golf courses, 2 bocce courts, 6 tennis courts and 10 pickleball courts with competitive teams. Fiddler's Creek is close to Marco Island Executive Airport, beaches, shopping, restaurants, boating and easy access to Naples 5th Avenue. Optional Golf and Beach memberships are available.

Key facts

• Lake views
• Impact doors
• Brick paver driveway

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• IMPACT DOORS
• IMPACT WINDOWS
• BRICK PAVER DRIVEWAY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Other

• Other: Possession at closing; Partially furnished

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory club fee of $1,149 quarterly; Condo fee of $2,694 quarterly; One-time mandatory club fee of $30,000; One-time other fee of $5,000; Total annual recurring fees $18,624; Total one-time fees $35,140; Professional management; Association maintenance covers cable, insurance, internet/Wi-Fi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, exterior pest control, reserves, sewer and water; Community amenities include beach club access, bike/jog paths, bocce, clubhouse, community pool, community room, exercise room, attended fitness center, full-service spa, golf course (golf equity), marina, pickleball, play area, private membership, putting green, restaurant, sauna, sidewalks, streetlights, tennis courts, and underground utilities; Community types: boating, gated, golf course, tennis

Exterior

• Parking: Deeded parking; Paved driveway; Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community; Guard at gate
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Natural gas available; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Low-rise (1-3) carriage/coach end-unit; Built in 2015; Zero lot line; Rear exposure faces north; Located in Fiddler's Creek, Sonoma
• Construction: Concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler system; Impact resistant windows and doors; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Lake and landscaped area views; Reclaimed irrigation water; Dock lease for boat access; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar; Breakfast room; Formal dining area
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Master bedroom on ground level; Split bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Tankless water heater
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Foyer; High-speed internet available; Laundry tub; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Screened lanai/porch; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $389k (8.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $425k).
• Recommended offer: $387k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 905 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,773/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 550% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $296k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $386,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.25%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-51,634
• Equity at exit: $92,868

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-26,254
• Equity at exit: $89,458

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34114

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 905
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,773 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$650 /mo · $7,806/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$1,281
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,212
• Net cashflow: $-203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,030

Max offer price $389,143

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-83	+0% $-203	+5% $-323	+10% $-444
Rent	-10% $-659	-5% $-431	+0% $-203	+5% $25	+10% $253
Rate	-1.0pp $11	-0.5pp $-95	base $-203	+0.5pp $-313	+1.0pp $-425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3031 Marengo Ct Unit 203 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2200	$3,500	$1.59	15d	1	0.13mi
3149 Aviamar Cir #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1890	$7,500	$3.97	15d	1	0.14mi
3290 Dorado Ln #102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2600	$5,530	$2.13	15d	1	0.27mi
3290 Dorado Ln Unit 1-102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2600	$10,000	$3.85	24d	1	0.27mi
9104 Cherry Oaks Trl Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1876	$5,000	$2.67	24d	1	0.30mi
2713 Callista Ct #103 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2237	$6,999	$3.13	24d	1	0.34mi
2710 Callista Ct #104 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2502	$9,000	$3.60	24d	1	0.37mi
2717 Callista Ct #104 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2502	$8,500	$3.40	24d	1	0.39mi
9142 Cherry Oaks Ln #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2408	$3,000	$1.25	15d	1	0.43mi
2850 Aviamar Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$12,000	$5.34	24d	1	0.44mi
9630 Campanile Cir Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2283	$15,000	$6.57	24d	1	0.46mi
9209 Museo Cir Unit 102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2502	$7,200	$2.88	15d	1	0.53mi
9224 Campanile Cir Unit 203 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2512	$6,495	$2.59	15d	1	0.59mi
9006 Cascada Way #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2408	$7,950	$3.30	24d	1	0.60mi
9571 Mussorie Ct Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2117	$12,500	$5.90	24d	1	0.61mi
9515 Campanile Cir Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2318	$20,000	$8.63	24d	1	0.69mi
9242 Tesoro Ln Unit 1-102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2237	$3,000	$1.34	24d	1	0.72mi
9239 Tesoro Ln Unit 3-203 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2300	$8,000	$3.48	24d	1	0.73mi
9243 Tesoro Ln Unit 2 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$6,500	$3.10	15d	1	0.76mi
9259 Museo Cir #102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$4,150	$1.98	24d	1	0.76mi
9255 Museo #103 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$9,000	$4.29	24d	1	0.82mi
14796 Canton Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$7,000	$4.17	24d	1	0.82mi
15244 Zeno Way Unit 203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2343	$3,600	$1.54	24d	1	0.83mi
15323 Lucerna St #204 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2393	$4,500	$1.88	15d	1	0.84mi
15320 Lucerna St #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1717	$2,995	$1.74	15d	1	0.84mi
9267 Museo Cir Unit 204 Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2100	$5,200	$2.48	24d	1	0.84mi
15335 Lucerna St #104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1956	$6,500	$3.32	24d	1	0.85mi
15155 Tolmino St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1930	$9,000	$4.66	24d	1	0.88mi
15336 Lucerna St #104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1956	$3,500	$1.79	24d	1	0.88mi
15257 Zeno Way #204 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2183	$3,400	$1.56	15d	1	0.90mi
15158 Tolmino St Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1676	$3,000	$1.79	15d	1	0.93mi
15191 Tolmino St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1950	$9,000	$4.62	24d	1	0.93mi
15137 Sacile St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1905	$3,750	$1.97	24d	1	0.93mi
14678 Fern Lake Ct Unit 1049694P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2142	$6,065	$2.83	15d	1	0.94mi
130 Grassy Key Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,850	$1.48	15d	1	0.97mi
130 Grassy Key Ln #37 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,795	$1.44	15d	1	0.97mi
15312 Motta Way Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2232	$4,250	$1.90	24d	1	0.97mi
14214 Manchester Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,700	$1.73	22d	1	0.97mi
14214 Manchester Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,800	$1.79	24d	1	0.97mi
15189 Sacile St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1905	$7,500	$3.94	24d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,281 · $15,372/yr
• Likely covers: watergaslandscapingpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $425,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $425,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $450,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 693-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $450,000 Active 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,806 · $650/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,806 · $650/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $69,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$7,806
• − Insurance: −$7,244
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,542
• − Management: −$5,542
• − HOA: −$15,372
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$8,397
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,015
• After-tax cash flow: $-420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winding Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,559
• Household income: $89,334
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 266.5545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+52.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $450,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $450,000 MIML
• 2015-05-04 Price Changed $288,990 NAPLESMLS
• 2015-04-30 Sold (MLS) $295,989 NAPLESMLS
• 2015-03-10 Listed $295,989 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,806 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.