604 E First St

Belzoni, MS 39038

$138,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · Built 1945 · Other · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,131/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax + insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $65/mo
• Annual: $784/yr
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $38,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($784/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (18.1% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#244 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Humphreys County School District (town): math 3% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #128 of 130 in MS (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 96% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ida Greene Lower Elementary (math 2% / reading 9%, grade F, #355 of 375 statewide, top 95%, 370 students, 100% FRL); O M Mc Nair Middle School (math 3% / reading 10%, grade F, #171 of 179 statewide, top 97%, 413 students, 100% FRL); Humphreys County High School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #193 of 197 statewide, top 99%, 424 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools at 100% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP.
• Humphreys County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.