604 E First St · Belzoni, MS 39038

$138,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · Other public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1945

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

split level 3b/3b office space outdoor living area pool fenced backyard 2 floored attics lots of closet space 2 storage sheds out back garage area

Key facts

• Outdoor living area
• Fenced backyard
• Storage sheds

Tags

• OUTDOOR LIVING AREA
• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHEDS
• GARAGE AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($784/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#244 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Humphreys County School District (town): math 3% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #128 of 130 in MS (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 96% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ida Greene Lower Elementary (math 2% / reading 9%, grade F, #355 of 375 statewide, top 95%, 370 students, 100% FRL); O M Mc Nair Middle School (math 3% / reading 10%, grade F, #171 of 179 statewide, top 97%, 413 students, 100% FRL); Humphreys County High School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #193 of 197 statewide, top 99%, 424 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools at 100% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Humphreys County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,056 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-18,259
• Equity at exit: $20,576

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-10,783
• Equity at exit: $11,932

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39038

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,131 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $559/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,048

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $143	-5% $104	+0% $65	+5% $26	+10% $-13
Rent	-10% $-24	-5% $21	+0% $65	+5% $110	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $100	base $65	+0.5pp $30	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $138,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $138,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $138,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $138,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $138,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $138,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $138,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $138,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $138,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $138,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $138,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $138,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $138,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $138,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $138,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $138,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $138,000 Active 146-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $559 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,090 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$531/yr (+$44/mo · 95.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$559
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,085
• − Management: −$1,085
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable loss: −$1,598
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$383
• After-tax cash flow: $1,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humphreys County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802040
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $25,369
• Composite: 3.93/100
• National rank: #10062
• State rank: #128 of 130 in MS

Livability — Belzoni

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #20158

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belzoni, MS
• Population (ZIP): 5,363

Population outlook (Humphreys County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,469 people
• By 2030: 6,878 · -7.9%
• By 2040: 5,784 · -22.6%
• By 2050: 4,906 · -34.3%
• By 2075: 3,775 · -49.5%
• By 2100: 3,672 · -50.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 82% White 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Humphreys

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+41.9) · D 70.4% · R 28.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.5pp no change · 2008: 42.4pp · 2024: 41.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+41.9 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+52.0 2008: D+42.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.37%
• Current HPI: 116.4065
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $138,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+67.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $559 · +36.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.