184 Hill Top Dr

Grand Rivers, KY 42045

$54,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Built 1968 · Other · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $815/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $264/mo
• Annual: $3,174/yr
• Cap rate: 12.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.65%
• DSCR: 1.92
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $15,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($815 rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $552 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#165 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Livingston County (rural): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #80 of 165 in KY (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Livingston Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #348 of 676 statewide, top 55%, 362 students, 62% FRL); Livingston County Middle School (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #73 of 217 statewide, top 36%, 252 students, 60% FRL); Livingston Central High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 329 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP.
• Livingston County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 1.4% in Grand Rivers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.