3483 W Verde River Rd

San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$575,000D-

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,168 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,915/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax + insurance: −$510
• HOA: −$148
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-1,371/mo
• Annual: $-16,449/yr
• Cap rate: 3.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.22%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $161,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $575k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (42.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (49.3% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($540k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $291k (49.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $61k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 489 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$99k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?