3483 W Verde River Rd · San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$575,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,168 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2023 5,521 sqft lot $182/sqft · 21% below area Est $725k · 21% under $148/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fall in love with the impeccable curb appeal of this gorgeous home, featuring a 2-car garage, manicured landscaping, and a welcoming front porch. Step inside to discover a thoughtfully designed split layout, offering a semi-open den and a bright, cozy family room complete with a fireplace. The immaculate eat-in kitchen is a chef's dream with granite countertops,GE Cafe stainless steel appliances, pendant and recessed lighting, cabinetry with crown molding, a stylish tile backsplash, an island with a breakfast bar, and a spacious walk-in pantry. Upstairs, you'll find a sizable loft and well-appointed bedrooms, including the luxurious main bedroom.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Cozy family room
• Semi-open den

Tags

• MANICURED LANDSCAPING
• FRONT PORCH
• SPLIT LAYOUT
• SEMI-OPEN DEN
• COZY FAMILY ROOM
• FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $575k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (42.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (49.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (49.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 489 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $61k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$99k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($540k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,471 (49.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.22%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 16.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $724,882
• List price: $575,000
• Delta: -20.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35373 N Cryolite St	0.34mi	6/4.5 (+1)	3,164 (-0%)	1mo	$718,000	$227	76
35211 N Danburite Ct	0.33mi	6/4.5 (+1)	3,164 (-0%)	3mo	$828,000	$262	75
3874 W Serpentine Dr	0.39mi	6/4.5 (+1)	3,176 (+0%)	3mo	$795,000	$250	72
3672 W Horse Trail Way	0.44mi	6/4.5 (+1)	3,164 (-0%)	6mo	$675,000	$213	68
3419 W Sunstone Dr	0.26mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,880 (-9%)	2mo	$710,000	$247	64
35325 N Cryolite St	0.31mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,980 (-6%)	2mo	$900,000	$302	63
3307 W Storm Cloud St	0.32mi	5/4.5	3,504 (+11%)	3mo	$740,000	$211	63
3323 W Sunstone Dr	0.26mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,880 (-9%)	5mo	$765,000	$266	61
4190 W Brenley Dr	0.47mi	5/3.5	2,923 (-8%)	6mo	$547,999	$187	58
35485 N Tin Ct	0.37mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,908 (-8%)	6mo	$650,000	$224	55
34949 N Stirrup Cir	0.59mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,773 (-12%)	3mo	$499,990	$180	40
4283 W Nora Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,775 (-12%)	6mo	$535,000	$193	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $225,716
• Equity at exit: $518,006

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $733,072
• Equity at exit: $1,117,099

Cash invested: $161,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85144

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 489
• Price-to-rent: 16.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,915 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,245/yr
• Insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$148
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-1,371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,650

Max offer price $332,851

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,045	-5% $-1,208	+0% $-1,371	+5% $-1,533	+10% $-1,696
Rent	-10% $-1,601	-5% $-1,486	+0% $-1,371	+5% $-1,256	+10% $-1,140
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,081	-0.5pp $-1,225	base $-1,371	+0.5pp $-1,520	+1.0pp $-1,671

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,750
• Closing costs: $17,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34973 N Augite Way San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2614	$4,350	$1.66	0d	1	0.18mi
4001 W Brass Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2432	$2,750	$1.13	45d	1	0.44mi
34113 N Alison Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2423	$2,089	$0.86	4d	1	0.48mi
2541 W Canyon Way San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2485	$2,100	$0.85	20d	1	0.67mi
3369 W Yellow Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2617	$2,715	$1.04	0d	1	0.76mi
4502 W Feather Plume Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	5.0	3.0	2722	$2,565	$0.94	26d	1	0.76mi
4332 W Hannah St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	45d	1	0.78mi
4251 W Dayflower Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2563	$2,490	$0.97	7d	1	0.81mi
2005 W Aston Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	1.5	2554	$2,350	$0.92	7d	1	0.95mi
22457 E Watford Dr Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	3.0	2164	$2,650	$1.22	45d	1	0.96mi
4122 W Federal Way San Tan Valley, AZ	5.0	3.0	3277	$2,759	$0.84	45d	1	0.97mi
22813 E Starflower Dr Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	3.5	2694	$2,999	$1.11	7d	1	1.09mi
33256 N Jamie Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	5.0	2.5	2717	$2,550	$0.94	6d	1	1.10mi
33256 N Jamie Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	5.0	2.5	2717	$2,550	$0.94	7d	1	1.10mi
35828 N Zachary Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2256	$1,789	$0.79	26d	1	1.20mi
3790 W South Butte Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	5.0	3.0	2378	$2,255	$0.95	5d	1	1.22mi
22815 E Watford Dr Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	3.0	2373	$2,800	$1.18	6d	1	1.22mi
4151 W Goldmine Mountain Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	5.0	3.0	2248	$2,161	$0.96	0d	1	1.34mi
26175 S 229th Pl Queen Creek, AZ	5.0	3.5	2875	$3,595	$1.25	0d	1	1.39mi
2936 W Jasper Butte Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	5.0	2.5	2547	$2,051	$0.81	23d	1	1.41mi
1277 W Busa Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	2136	$4,000	$1.87	7d	1	1.42mi
25713 S 226th Pl Queen Creek, AZ	5.0	4.5	3183	$4,545	$1.43	26d	1	1.42mi
1818 W Desert Seasons Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2321	$2,090	$0.90	16d	1	1.44mi
1817 W Desert Seasons Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2470	$1,207	$0.49	21d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $148 · $1,776/yr
• Likely covers: cablelandscaping

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $575,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $575,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $575,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $575,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $575,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $575,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $575,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $575,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $575,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $575,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $575,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $600,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $600,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $600,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $600,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $600,000 Active 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Fall in love with the impeccable curb appeal of this gorgeous home, featuring a 2-car garage, manicured landscaping, and a welcoming front porch. Step inside to discover a thoughtfully designed split layout, offering a semi-open den and a bright, cozy family room complete with a fireplace. The immaculate eat-in kitchen is a chef's dream with granite countertops,GE Cafe stainless steel appliances, pendant and recessed lighting, cabinetry with crown molding, a stylish tile backsplash, an island with a breakfast bar, and a spacious walk-in pantry. Upstairs, you'll find a sizable loft and well-appointed bedrooms, including the luxurious main bedroom.

17. 2025-07-04
    historical
18. 2025-07-01
    status Active
19. 2025-07-01
    historical
20. 2025-06-22
    price $624,000
21. 2025-06-12
    price $645,000
22. 2025-05-13
    price $650,000
23. 2025-05-01
    status Active
24. 2025-04-21
    historical
25. 2025-03-28
    price $670,000
26. 2025-02-27
    listed $675,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,245 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,795 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: +$550/yr (+$46/mo · 16.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,209
• − Property taxes: −$3,245
• − Insurance: −$2,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,798
• − Management: −$2,798
• − HOA: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$16,727
• Taxable loss: −$27,452
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,588
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Tan Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #24192

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Tan Valley, AZ

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.94%
• Current HPI: 372.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $600,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-22 Price Changed $624,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $645,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $650,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-04-21 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $670,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-27 Listed $675,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+187.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,245 · +715.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.