1126 16th Ave

Rockford, IL 61104

$139,900B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · — sqft · Built 1915 · MultiFamily · Pending · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,195/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $824/mo
• Annual: $9,892/yr
• Cap rate: 13.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.25%
• DSCR: 2.12
• 1% rule: 1.57%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $824 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $412/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 69 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $140k implies a 155% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,195/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($34k/yr) (locally 1406% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.