2829 Genuine Risk Ct

Celina, TX 75009

$688,647F

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,192 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 153 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,606/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,611
• Tax + insurance: −$1,214
• HOA: −$147
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$757
• Net cashflow: $-2,124/mo
• Annual: $-25,490/yr
• Cap rate: 2.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.81%
• DSCR: 0.43
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $192,821

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $689k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (44.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $361k (47.6% below list).
• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($606k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $361k (47.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Prosper ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #33 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cynthia A Cockrell El (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B, #311 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 759 students, 4% FRL); Lorene Rogers Middle (math 70% / reading 68%, grade A, #69 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 1,430 students, 0% FRL); Prosper H S (math 60% / reading 75%, grade B, #158 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,769 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3881 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 87d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?