2829 Genuine Risk Ct · Celina, TX 75009

$688,647

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,192 sqft · SingleFamily · 198 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,011 sqft lot 4-car garage $216/sqft · 26% below area Est $927k · 26% under $147/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2829 Genuine Risk Court, Celina, TX 75009: Experience the impressive Primrose, a beautifully designed two-story home situated on an elevated corner homesite that offers a wonderful sense of privacy while keeping you just moments from the community's walking trails and pond. With 5 bedrooms and 4 full bathrooms, this home delivers an incredible amount of space and flexibility-but one of its biggest showstoppers is the expansive 4-car garage. Whether you need room for multiple vehicles, recreational equipment, a workshop, additional storage, or simply appreciate having extra garage space, this is a rare feature that truly sets the Primrose apart.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Sunlit study
• Upstairs retreat

Tags

• CHEF KITCHEN
• COVERED PORCH
• SUNLIT STUDY
• UPSTAIRS RETREAT
• WALK IN CLOSET
• ENERGYSAVER INNOVATIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $689k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $389k (43.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $367k (46.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $367k (46.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Prosper ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #33 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cynthia A Cockrell El (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B, #311 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 759 students, 4% FRL); Lorene Rogers Middle (math 70% / reading 68%, grade A, #69 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 1,430 students, 0% FRL); Prosper H S (math 60% / reading 75%, grade B, #158 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,769 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 4240 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($606k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $366,945 (46.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.49%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $926,793
• List price: $688,647
• Delta: -25.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2623 Seabiscuit Rd	0.37mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,306 (+4%)	2mo	$799,900	$242	68
2913 Vaquero Ln	0.61mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,221 (+1%)	4mo	$919,000	$285	62
3201 Alydar Dr	0.39mi	4/5.0 (-1)	3,411 (+7%)	1mo	$1,099,000	$322	60
2414 Hawksbury Ct	0.21mi	4/4.5 (-1)	3,628 (+14%)	3mo	$1,200,000	$331	58
1805 Briarcrest Dr	0.73mi	5/4.0	3,056 (-4%)	1mo	$480,250	$157	58
1809 Briarcrest Dr	0.72mi	5/4.0	2,976 (-7%)	1mo	$579,380	$195	55
2718 Corral Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,413 (+7%)	3mo	$899,000	$263	54
3032 Cliffside Dr	0.73mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,084 (-3%)	4mo	$497,790	$161	52
2425 Eclipse Pl	0.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,722 (-15%)	4mo	$699,900	$257	44
2801 N Little Current Ct	0.49mi	4/4.5 (-1)	3,634 (+14%)	4mo	$990,900	$273	44
2821 Neutral Player Ct	0.58mi	4/4.5 (-1)	3,649 (+14%)	0mo	$874,900	$240	42
1700 Bird Cherry Ln	0.69mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,867 (-10%)	1mo	$536,000	$187	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-254,231
• Equity at exit: $102,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -99.6%
• Equity multiple: -1.24×
• Total profit: $-432,247
• Equity at exit: $59,542

Cash invested: $192,821 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 239 active · 68 under contract
• Months of supply: 21.7 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $724,743 ($228/sqft)
• Median days on market: 143 d
• This list price: 44% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 4240
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,669 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,611
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$861 /mo · $10,330/yr
• Insurance: −$287
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$147
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$771
• Net cashflow: $-2,074

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,294

Max offer price $388,583

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,598	-5% $-1,836	+0% $-2,074	+5% $-2,312	+10% $-2,550
Rent	-10% $-2,364	-5% $-2,219	+0% $-2,074	+5% $-1,929	+10% $-1,784
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,727	-0.5pp $-1,899	base $-2,074	+0.5pp $-2,252	+1.0pp $-2,434

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $172,162
• Closing costs: $20,659
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2232 Grey September St Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3003	$4,500	$1.50	134d	1	0.16mi
3501 Truro St Celina, TX	4.0	4.0	3559	$4,500	$1.26	10d	1	0.25mi
2424 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2261	$2,900	$1.28	35d	1	0.50mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	184d	1	0.51mi
3533 Hyacinth Way Prosper, TX	4.0	3.5	3405	$3,600	$1.06	102d	1	0.53mi
2632 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2359	$3,500	$1.48	0d	1	0.60mi
1629 White Snowberry Ln Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2996	$3,200	$1.07	152d	1	0.62mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	184d	1	0.64mi
2600 Precocious Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3316	$4,700	$1.42	99d	1	0.73mi
2912 Seattle Slew Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3679	$3,900	$1.06	0d	1	0.77mi
1600 Bird Cherry Ln Prosper, TX	4.0	2.0	2212	$3,099	$1.40	146d	1	0.78mi
1600 Bird Cherry Ln Prosper, TX	4.0	2.0	2213	$2,745	$1.24	10d	1	0.78mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	159d	1	0.83mi
1427 Daisy Corner Dr Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2989	$3,499	$1.17	184d	1	0.84mi
2821 Adon Springs Ln Celina, TX	5.0	3.5	4064	$4,250	$1.05	140d	1	0.84mi
1837 Whispering Pines Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3670	$3,550	$0.97	142d	1	0.84mi
1837 Whispering Pines Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3664	$3,400	$0.93	104d	1	0.85mi
1837 Whispering Pines Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3670	$3,550	$0.97	132d	1	0.85mi
2809 River Bend Pl Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	4288	$4,250	$0.99	64d	1	0.87mi
2901 Adon Springs Ln Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	3606	$4,000	$1.11	37d	1	0.88mi
1514 Carnation St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	3041	$3,900	$1.28	148d	1	0.88mi
1514 Carnation St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	3041	$3,900	$1.28	159d	1	0.88mi
1417 Bird Cherry Ln Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2967	$3,900	$1.31	185d	1	0.89mi
2820 Fountain Park Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	4250	$4,600	$1.08	116d	1	0.90mi
1400 Daisy Corner Dr Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	3025	$3,700	$1.22	135d	1	0.91mi
2020 Stonebrook St Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3596	$3,295	$0.92	95d	1	0.91mi
1308 Ladys Mantle Way Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2975	$3,400	$1.14	10d	1	0.92mi
1308 Bluebonnet Ln Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2175	$3,250	$1.49	159d	1	0.94mi
1615 Gardenia St Prosper, TX	5.0	3.5	3404	$3,850	$1.13	184d	1	0.94mi
6531 Swallow Ct McKinney, TX	4.0	3.0	3049	$1,700	$0.56	77d	1	0.94mi
3125 Pedigree Ct Celina, TX	4.0	4.5	3589	$4,600	$1.28	76d	1	0.94mi
1500 Cherry Blossom Ln Prosper, TX	4.0	4.0	2722	$3,200	$1.18	10d	1	0.95mi
1500 Cherry Blossom Ln Prosper, TX	4.0	4.0	2722	$3,300	$1.21	20d	1	0.95mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$2,995	$1.06	126d	1	0.97mi
3328 Zenyatta Ct Celina, TX	5.0	5.0	4328	$5,000	$1.16	36d	1	0.99mi
3328 Zenyatta Ct Celina, TX	5.0	5.0	4328	$5,000	$1.16	14d	1	0.99mi
3332 Zenyatta Ct Celina, TX	4.0	4.5	3789	$4,495	$1.19	20d	1	1.01mi
3517 Henry Xing Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2281	$2,695	$1.18	143d	1	1.01mi
3517 Henry Xing Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2281	$2,600	$1.14	121d	1	1.01mi
4428 Mill Pond Dr Celina, TX	4.0	4.0	2883	$4,650	$1.61	73d	1	1.01mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $774,990

Exterior

• Parking: 4-car garage / parking spaces (total 4)
• Home design: Single-family propertyPrimrose floor plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Primrose plan)Living area of 3197

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $688,647 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $688,647 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $688,647 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $688,647 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $688,647 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $688,647 Active 192 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $688,647 Active 191 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $688,647 Active 190 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $688,647 Active 189 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $688,647 Active 188 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $688,647 Active 187 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $688,647 Active 186 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $688,647 Active 185 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $688,647 Active 184 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $688,647 Active 183 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $688,647 Active 182 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $688,647 Active 181 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $688,647 Active 180 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $688,647 Active 179 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $688,647 Active 178 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $688,647 Active 177 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $688,647 Active 176 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $688,647 Active 175 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $688,647 Active 174 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $688,647 Active 173 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $688,647 Active 172 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $688,647 Active 171 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $688,647 Active 170 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $688,647 Active 169 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $688,647 Active 168 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $688,647 Active 167 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $688,647 Active 166 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $688,647 Active 165 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $688,647 Active 164 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $688,647 Active 163 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $688,647 Active 162 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $688,647 Active 161 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $688,647 Active 160 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $688,647 Active 159 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $688,647 Active 158 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $688,647 Active 157 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $688,647 Active 156 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $688,647 Active 155 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $688,647 Active 154 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $688,647 Active 153 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $688,647 Active 152 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $688,647 Active 151 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $688,647 Active 150 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $688,647 Active 148 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $688,647 Active 147 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,575
• − Property taxes: −$10,330
• − Insurance: −$4,241
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,523
• − Management: −$3,523
• − HOA: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$20,033
• Taxable loss: −$37,955
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,109
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,775/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a luxurious and spacious living experience with a prime location and modern design.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prosper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836000
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $107,993
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1212
• State rank: #33 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $774,990

Exterior

• Parking: 4-car garage / parking spaces (total 4)
• Home design: Single-family propertyPrimrose floor plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Primrose plan)Living area of 3197