338 Juniper Dr

Valley Green, PA 17319

$189,900D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,100 sqft · Built 1983 · Townhouse · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,622/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $42/mo
• Annual: $510/yr
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.96%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($510/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (14.6% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#773 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• West Shore SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #222 of 539 in PA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Red Mill El Sch (math 57% / reading 69%, grade B, #298 of 1,518 statewide, top 20%, 557 students, 38% FRL); Crossroads Ms (math 26% / reading 58%, grade D-, #221 of 512 statewide, top 45%, 651 students, 36% FRL); Red Land Shs (math 56% / reading 75%, grade B, #65 of 437 statewide, top 15%, 1,101 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.6% in Valley Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.