338 Juniper Dr · Valley Green, PA 17319

$189,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,100 sqft · Townhouse public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1983 2,400 sqft lot Est $189k · at est. $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Valley Green Village townhome has been freshly painted, cleaned and is move in ready. Conveniently located to many activities, local parks, shopping. Close to PA Turnpike and Route 83 with easy access to Harrisburg city, York and Maryland. Enter the main level living space with open living room, dining room and bright kitchen. Sliding door off of the dining room to the fully fenced in yard and fresh new deck to enjoy the sunshine and morning coffee. Half bathroom is also located on the main level along with the laundry room. In the second level living space are 3 ample sized bedrooms with lots of closet storage space and a full bath finishes off level two. Two parking spaces in front of the townhome and easy overflow parking nearby. Low YEARLY HOA fee of $140 covers common areas and the playground pavilion. HOA Documents are under the documents link. Remaining with home are: Kitchen Refrigerator, Electric Stove, Dishwasher, counter top Microwave, two window A/C Units. All that is missing is you !

Key facts

• $13 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1983

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($510/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.6% in Valley Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#773 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• West Shore SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #222 of 539 in PA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Red Mill El Sch (math 57% / reading 69%, grade B, #298 of 1,518 statewide, top 20%, 557 students, 38% FRL); Crossroads Ms (math 26% / reading 58%, grade D-, #221 of 512 statewide, top 45%, 651 students, 36% FRL); Red Land Shs (math 56% / reading 75%, grade B, #65 of 437 statewide, top 15%, 1,101 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,250 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.96%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $189,200
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
321 Juniper Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,100 (0%)	6mo	$184,900	$168	91
244 Juniper Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,100 (0%)	5mo	$195,000	$177	89
158 Juniper Dr	0.21mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,100 (0%)	2mo	$189,000	$172	84
279 Juniper Dr	0.07mi	2/1.5	1,200 (+9%)	16mo	$176,000	$147	68
309 Juniper Dr	0.05mi	2/1.5	1,200 (+9%)	23mo	$170,000	$142	63
4 Fargreen Ct	0.52mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,148 (+4%)	13mo	$234,700	$204	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-28,086
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-21,055
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17319

• Home prices YoY: -20.2%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,622 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,816/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,569

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $150	-5% $96	+0% $42	+5% $-11	+10% $-65
Rent	-10% $-86	-5% $-22	+0% $42	+5% $107	+10% $171
Rate	-1.0pp $138	-0.5pp $91	base $42	+0.5pp $-7	+1.0pp $-57

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40 Red Mill Rd Goldsboro, PA	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,622	$1.52	15d	11	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-15
   listed $189,900 Active
3. 2026-03-10
   price $189,900
4. 2026-03-05
   price $184,900
5. 2026-03-05
   historical $189,900
6. 2023-03-08
   soldstatus $155,000
7. 2023-02-28
   soldstatus $162,155 Closed 1011-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

   Valley Green Village townhome has been freshly painted, cleaned and is move in ready. Conveniently located to many activities, local parks, shopping. Close to PA Turnpike and Route 83 with easy access to Harrisburg city, York and Maryland. Enter the main level living space with open living room, dining room and bright kitchen. Sliding door off of the dining room to the fully fenced in yard and fresh new deck to enjoy the sunshine and morning coffee. Half bathroom is also located on the main level along with the laundry room. In the second level living space are 3 ample sized bedrooms with lots of closet storage space and a full bath finishes off level two. Two parking spaces in front of the townhome and easy overflow parking nearby. Low YEARLY HOA fee of $140 covers common areas and the playground pavilion. HOA Documents are under the documents link. Remaining with home are: Kitchen Refrigerator, Electric Stove, Dishwasher, counter top Microwave, two window A/C Units. All that is missing is you !

8. 2023-01-27
   status Pending 1011-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

   Valley Green Village townhome has been freshly painted, cleaned and is move in ready. Conveniently located to many activities, local parks, shopping. Close to PA Turnpike and Route 83 with easy access to Harrisburg city, York and Maryland. Enter the main level living space with open living room, dining room and bright kitchen. Sliding door off of the dining room to the fully fenced in yard and fresh new deck to enjoy the sunshine and morning coffee. Half bathroom is also located on the main level along with the laundry room. In the second level living space are 3 ample sized bedrooms with lots of closet storage space and a full bath finishes off level two. Two parking spaces in front of the townhome and easy overflow parking nearby. Low YEARLY HOA fee of $140 covers common areas and the playground pavilion. HOA Documents are under the documents link. Remaining with home are: Kitchen Refrigerator, Electric Stove, Dishwasher, counter top Microwave, two window A/C Units. All that is missing is you !

9. 2023-01-20
   listed $159,900 Active 1011-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

   Valley Green Village townhome has been freshly painted, cleaned and is move in ready. Conveniently located to many activities, local parks, shopping. Close to PA Turnpike and Route 83 with easy access to Harrisburg city, York and Maryland. Enter the main level living space with open living room, dining room and bright kitchen. Sliding door off of the dining room to the fully fenced in yard and fresh new deck to enjoy the sunshine and morning coffee. Half bathroom is also located on the main level along with the laundry room. In the second level living space are 3 ample sized bedrooms with lots of closet storage space and a full bath finishes off level two. Two parking spaces in front of the townhome and easy overflow parking nearby. Low YEARLY HOA fee of $140 covers common areas and the playground pavilion. HOA Documents are under the documents link. Remaining with home are: Kitchen Refrigerator, Electric Stove, Dishwasher, counter top Microwave, two window A/C Units. All that is missing is you !

10. 2023-01-18
    historical $159,900 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    Valley Green Village townhome has been freshly painted, cleaned and is move in ready. Conveniently located to many activities, local parks, shopping. Close to PA Turnpike and Route 83 with easy access to Harrisburg city, York and Maryland. Enter the main level living space with open living room, dining room and bright kitchen. Sliding door off of the dining room to the fully fenced in yard and fresh new deck to enjoy the sunshine and morning coffee. Half bathroom is also located on the main level along with the laundry room. In the second level living space are 3 ample sized bedrooms with lots of closet storage space and a full bath finishes off level two. Two parking spaces in front of the townhome and easy overflow parking nearby. Low YEARLY HOA fee of $140 covers common areas and the playground pavilion. HOA Documents are under the documents link. Remaining with home are: Kitchen Refrigerator, Electric Stove, Dishwasher, counter top Microwave, two window A/C Units. All that is missing is you !

11. 2020-05-13
    historical
12. 2014-11-30
    historical
13. 2014-08-21
    listed $95,000
14. 2014-05-27
    listed $95,000
15. 2010-02-23
    soldstatus $105,500
16. 2010-02-19
    soldstatus $105,500
17. 2009-12-30
    historical
18. 2009-12-30
    historical
19. 2009-08-13
    listed $109,500
20. 2009-08-13
    listed $114,000
21. 2006-12-29
    soldstatus $89,900
22. 2006-12-15
    historical
23. 2006-12-15
    soldstatus $89,900
24. 2006-11-19
    historical
25. 2006-11-06
    listed $89,900
26. 2006-11-06
    listed $89,900
27. 2006-08-31
    soldstatus $60,000
28. 1997-12-02
    soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,816 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,408 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$592/yr (+$49/mo · 32.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,816
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,558
• − Management: −$1,558
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$2,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$655
• After-tax cash flow: $1,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Shore SD
• NCES district ID: 4225830
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,398
• Composite: 40.9/100
• National rank: #3617
• State rank: #222 of 539 in PA

Livability — Valley Green

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #773
• US rank: #7809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valley Green, PA
• City population: 10,990
• Population (ZIP): 10,990

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Polish 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.02%
• Current HPI: 268.9557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+233.2% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-15 Listed $189,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $189,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $184,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-05 Coming Soon $189,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-28 Sold (MLS) $162,155 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-01-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-01-20 Listed $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-01-18 Coming Soon $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-05-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-11-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-08-21 Listed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-05-27 Listed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $105,500 Public Records
• 2010-02-19 Sold (MLS) $105,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-12-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-12-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-08-13 Listed $114,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-08-13 Listed $109,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 2006-12-15 Sold (MLS) $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-12-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-11-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-11-06 Listed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-11-06 Listed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1997-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,816 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.