18462 Rolling Hills Dr

Porter Heights, TX 77365

$189,500C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,228 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,923/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax + insurance: −$769
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-244/mo
• Annual: $-2,927/yr
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.13%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $53,060

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (22.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 941 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.