18462 Rolling Hills Dr · Porter Heights, TX 77365

$189,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,228 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1984 0.26 ac lot $154/sqft · 26% below area Est $255k · 26% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked into a peaceful pocket of Porter, this fully updated home invites you to enjoy comfort, flexibility & everyday ease on a generous lot with mature trees offering natural shade & privacy. Recent capital improvements include a 5-year-old roof, 4-year-old HVAC, water heater, oven, dishwasher & flooring—giving you confidence in major systems from the start. You'll love having quick access to major routes like FM 1314 & Grand Parkway (99), while shopping, dining & recreation are always within reach. Inside, your open layout connects living, dining & kitchen under recessed lighting & wood-look floors, offering space to entertain, relax, or reconfigure as life evolves. The kitchen shines w/ an oversized island, pendant lighting & crisp white cabinetry. Bedrooms feature modern fixtures & ample storage, while outside, your spacious yard & covered patio create the perfect space to unwind, garden, or let pets roam free.

Key facts

• 5 year old roof
• Generous lot
• 4 year old hvac

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• GENEROUS LOT
• MATURE TREES
• 5 YEAR OLD ROOF
• 4 YEAR OLD HVAC
• WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (22.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 941 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,418 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.13%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,646
• List price: $189,500
• Delta: -23.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20009 Fibonacci	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+4%)	7mo	$224,990	$176	62
20000 Hilbert Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+4%)	0mo	$234,990	$184	57
18310 Leibniz Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+4%)	6mo	$219,990	$172	50
19956 Hilbert Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (-6%)	2mo	$224,990	$195	49
18327 Cantor St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (-6%)	8mo	$213,990	$185	48
18307 Cantor St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (-6%)	6mo	$217,990	$189	47
18326 Leibniz Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (-6%)	9mo	$209,999	$182	46
20021 Fibonacci St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (-6%)	8mo	$212,990	$184	45
18306 Leibniz Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (-6%)	8mo	$212,990	$184	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-48,509
• Equity at exit: $28,255

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-71,284
• Equity at exit: $16,384

Cash invested: $53,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 941
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,923 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,163/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,231

Max offer price $146,418

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,375
• Closing costs: $5,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18644 Swainboro Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$2,000	$1.41	43d	1	0.66mi
20114 Battle Branch Trl New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,949	$1.33	3d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,500 Pending 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,500 Pending 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,500 Pending 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,500 Pending 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $189,500 Pending 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,500 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,500 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,500 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,500 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,500 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,500 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,500 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,500 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $195,500 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Tucked into a peaceful pocket of Porter, this fully updated home invites you to enjoy comfort, flexibility & everyday ease on a generous lot with mature trees offering natural shade & privacy. Recent capital improvements include a 5-year-old roof, 4-year-old HVAC, water heater, oven, dishwasher & flooring—giving you confidence in major systems from the start. You'll love having quick access to major routes like FM 1314 & Grand Parkway (99), while shopping, dining & recreation are always within reach. Inside, your open layout connects living, dining & kitchen under recessed lighting & wood-look floors, offering space to entertain, relax, or reconfigure as life evolves. The kitchen shines w/ an oversized island, pendant lighting & crisp white cabinetry. Bedrooms feature modern fixtures & ample storage, while outside, your spacious yard & covered patio create the perfect space to unwind, garden, or let pets roam free.

15. 2026-05-06
    price $196,500 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Tucked into a peaceful pocket of Porter, this fully updated home invites you to enjoy comfort, flexibility & everyday ease on a generous lot with mature trees offering natural shade & privacy. Recent capital improvements include a 5-year-old roof, 4-year-old HVAC, water heater, oven, dishwasher & flooring—giving you confidence in major systems from the start. You'll love having quick access to major routes like FM 1314 & Grand Parkway (99), while shopping, dining & recreation are always within reach. Inside, your open layout connects living, dining & kitchen under recessed lighting & wood-look floors, offering space to entertain, relax, or reconfigure as life evolves. The kitchen shines w/ an oversized island, pendant lighting & crisp white cabinetry. Bedrooms feature modern fixtures & ample storage, while outside, your spacious yard & covered patio create the perfect space to unwind, garden, or let pets roam free.

16. 2026-04-29
    price $197,500 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Tucked into a peaceful pocket of Porter, this fully updated home invites you to enjoy comfort, flexibility & everyday ease on a generous lot with mature trees offering natural shade & privacy. Recent capital improvements include a 5-year-old roof, 4-year-old HVAC, water heater, oven, dishwasher & flooring—giving you confidence in major systems from the start. You'll love having quick access to major routes like FM 1314 & Grand Parkway (99), while shopping, dining & recreation are always within reach. Inside, your open layout connects living, dining & kitchen under recessed lighting & wood-look floors, offering space to entertain, relax, or reconfigure as life evolves. The kitchen shines w/ an oversized island, pendant lighting & crisp white cabinetry. Bedrooms feature modern fixtures & ample storage, while outside, your spacious yard & covered patio create the perfect space to unwind, garden, or let pets roam free.

17. 2026-04-22
    price $198,500 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Tucked into a peaceful pocket of Porter, this fully updated home invites you to enjoy comfort, flexibility & everyday ease on a generous lot with mature trees offering natural shade & privacy. Recent capital improvements include a 5-year-old roof, 4-year-old HVAC, water heater, oven, dishwasher & flooring—giving you confidence in major systems from the start. You'll love having quick access to major routes like FM 1314 & Grand Parkway (99), while shopping, dining & recreation are always within reach. Inside, your open layout connects living, dining & kitchen under recessed lighting & wood-look floors, offering space to entertain, relax, or reconfigure as life evolves. The kitchen shines w/ an oversized island, pendant lighting & crisp white cabinetry. Bedrooms feature modern fixtures & ample storage, while outside, your spacious yard & covered patio create the perfect space to unwind, garden, or let pets roam free.

18. 2026-03-04
    price $199,500 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Tucked into a peaceful pocket of Porter, this fully updated home invites you to enjoy comfort, flexibility & everyday ease on a generous lot with mature trees offering natural shade & privacy. Recent capital improvements include a 5-year-old roof, 4-year-old HVAC, water heater, oven, dishwasher & flooring—giving you confidence in major systems from the start. You'll love having quick access to major routes like FM 1314 & Grand Parkway (99), while shopping, dining & recreation are always within reach. Inside, your open layout connects living, dining & kitchen under recessed lighting & wood-look floors, offering space to entertain, relax, or reconfigure as life evolves. The kitchen shines w/ an oversized island, pendant lighting & crisp white cabinetry. Bedrooms feature modern fixtures & ample storage, while outside, your spacious yard & covered patio create the perfect space to unwind, garden, or let pets roam free.

19. 2026-02-26
    listed $209,990 Active 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Tucked into a peaceful pocket of Porter, this fully updated home invites you to enjoy comfort, flexibility & everyday ease on a generous lot with mature trees offering natural shade & privacy. Recent capital improvements include a 5-year-old roof, 4-year-old HVAC, water heater, oven, dishwasher & flooring—giving you confidence in major systems from the start. You'll love having quick access to major routes like FM 1314 & Grand Parkway (99), while shopping, dining & recreation are always within reach. Inside, your open layout connects living, dining & kitchen under recessed lighting & wood-look floors, offering space to entertain, relax, or reconfigure as life evolves. The kitchen shines w/ an oversized island, pendant lighting & crisp white cabinetry. Bedrooms feature modern fixtures & ample storage, while outside, your spacious yard & covered patio create the perfect space to unwind, garden, or let pets roam free.

20. 2026-02-26
    historical

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Tucked into a peaceful pocket of Porter, this fully updated home invites you to enjoy comfort, flexibility & everyday ease on a generous lot with mature trees offering natural shade & privacy. Recent capital improvements include a 5-year-old roof, 4-year-old HVAC, water heater, oven, dishwasher & flooring—giving you confidence in major systems from the start. You'll love having quick access to major routes like FM 1314 & Grand Parkway (99), while shopping, dining & recreation are always within reach. Inside, your open layout connects living, dining & kitchen under recessed lighting & wood-look floors, offering space to entertain, relax, or reconfigure as life evolves. The kitchen shines w/ an oversized island, pendant lighting & crisp white cabinetry. Bedrooms feature modern fixtures & ample storage, while outside, your spacious yard & covered patio create the perfect space to unwind, garden, or let pets roam free.

21. 2026-02-05
    listed $209,990 Active
22. 2023-10-25
    status Pending
23. 2023-10-19
    historical
24. 2023-10-17
    historical $1,350
25. 2023-10-06
    listed $1,350
26. 2023-10-05
    status Active
27. 2023-10-04
    status Pending
28. 2023-09-26
    historical $1,350
29. 2023-09-26
    status Option Pending
30. 2023-08-29
    listed $1,350
31. 2023-07-06
    listed $189,900 Active
32. 2023-05-31
    historical
33. 2023-05-03
    price $194,900
34. 2023-03-21
    status Active
35. 2023-03-20
    historical
36. 2022-11-29
    price $199,900
37. 2022-09-20
    listed $209,900 Active
38. 2022-05-06
    soldstatus Sold
39. 2022-05-06
    soldstatus
40. 2022-04-15
    status Pending
41. 2022-04-05
    status Option Pending
42. 2022-03-31
    price $89,000
43. 2022-03-09
    price $104,500
44. 2022-02-06
    listed $129,900 Active
45. 2022-02-02
    soldstatus
46. 2015-11-19
    soldstatus
47. 2015-11-18
    soldstatus Sold
48. 2015-10-13
    status Pending
49. 2015-10-08
    price $24,000
50. 2015-10-02
    status Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,163 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,468 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: +$305/yr (+$25/mo · 9.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,615
• − Property taxes: −$3,163
• − Insurance: −$6,066
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − Depreciation: −$5,513
• Taxable loss: −$5,975
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,434
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1016.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+428.4% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $195,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $196,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $197,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $198,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $199,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $209,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $209,990 HARMLS
• 2023-10-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-10-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-10-17 Rental Removed $1,350 HARMLS
• 2023-10-06 Listed for Rent $1,350 HARMLS
• 2023-10-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-10-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-09-26 Rental Removed $1,350 HARMLS
• 2023-09-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-08-29 Listed for Rent $1,350 HARMLS
• 2023-07-06 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2023-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-05-03 Price Changed $194,900 HARMLS
• 2023-03-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-03-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-11-29 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2022-09-20 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2022-05-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-04-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-04-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-31 Price Changed $89,000 HARMLS
• 2022-03-09 Price Changed $104,500 HARMLS
• 2022-02-06 Listed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2022-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-11-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-11-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-10-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-10-08 Price Changed $24,000 HARMLS
• 2015-10-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2015-08-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-05-27 Listed $37,000 HARMLS
• 1993-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,163 · +16.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.