164 Deer Hollow Rd

Sugar Grove, VA 24375

$99,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $871/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$3
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $27/mo
• Annual: $329/yr
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.06%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($329/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (12.0% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#504 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Smyth County Public School District (rural): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #89 of 131 in VA (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sugar Grove Elementary (math 44% / reading 54%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 101 students, 101% FRL); Marion Middle (math 44% / reading 64%, grade B-, #205 of 342 statewide, top 61%, 431 students, 96% FRL); Marion Senior High (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 638 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 54% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Smyth County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smyth County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $99k implies a 196% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.