164 Deer Hollow Rd · Sugar Grove, VA 24375

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1995 0.52 ac lot $115/sqft · 37% above area Est $72k · 37% over $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Weekend retreat! Nice, Cozy 2 bedroom 1 bath cabin within walking distance to Jefferson National Forest! With laminated hardwood and tile flooring, nice kitchen area and front porch to enjoy nature.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Wooded lot
• Fenced patio area

Tags

• WOODED LOT
• FRONT AND REAR COVERED PORCHES
• METAL ROOF
• VINYL TILT THERMAL WINDOWS
• WOOD PELLET STOVE
• FENCED PATIO AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $36 (about $3/month)

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fans; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($329/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#504 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Smyth County Public School District (rural): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #89 of 131 in VA (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sugar Grove Elementary (math 44% / reading 54%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 101 students, 101% FRL); Marion Middle (math 44% / reading 64%, grade B-, #205 of 342 statewide, top 61%, 431 students, 96% FRL); Marion Senior High (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 638 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 54% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Smyth County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Smyth County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $99k implies a 196% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,127 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.06%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,417
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: 51.90%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
323 Hawks Peak Rd	0.47mi	2/1.0	800 (-7%)	11mo	$80,000	$100	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $7,834
• Equity at exit: $38,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $33,067
• Equity at exit: $54,597

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24375

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $871 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $372/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $837

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $55	+0% $27	+5% $-1	+10% $-29
Rent	-10% $-41	-5% $-7	+0% $27	+5% $62	+10% $96
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $53	base $27	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   status $99,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $99,000 Pending 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on marketlisting id $99,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $110,000 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $110,000 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 176 DOM
12. 2026-03-16
    price $110,000 545-char remark
13. 2026-01-09
    price $113,000 545-char remark
14. 2025-12-07
    listed $115,000 Active 545-char remark
15. 2021-11-24
    soldstatus $33,400 198-char remark

    Show marketing remark (198 chars)

    Weekend retreat! Nice, Cozy 2 bedroom 1 bath cabin within walking distance to Jefferson National Forest! With laminated hardwood and tile flooring, nice kitchen area and front porch to enjoy nature.

16. 2021-08-06
    listed $38,900 198-char remark

    Show marketing remark (198 chars)

    Weekend retreat! Nice, Cozy 2 bedroom 1 bath cabin within walking distance to Jefferson National Forest! With laminated hardwood and tile flooring, nice kitchen area and front porch to enjoy nature.

17. 2017-03-27
    soldstatus $12,500
18. 2016-10-28
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $372 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$440/yr (+$37/mo · 118.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$372
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$836
• − Management: −$836
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$1,344
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$323
• After-tax cash flow: $651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smyth County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103520
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $36,901
• Composite: 45.2/100
• National rank: #2672
• State rank: #89 of 131 in VA

Livability — Sugar Grove

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #504
• US rank: #22381

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,648

Population outlook (Smyth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,740 people
• By 2030: 28,593 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 26,091 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 23,629 · -20.5%
• By 2075: 18,365 · -38.2%
• By 2100: 13,697 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 1% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smyth

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.4% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.4pp toward R · 2008: -29.1pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+33.0 2008: R+29.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.86%
• Current HPI: 113.7003
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+296.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Relisted — SWVAR
• 2026-06-10 Pending — SWVAR
• 2026-06-08 Listed $99,000 SWVAR
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $110,000 SWVAR
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $113,000 SWVAR
• 2021-11-24 Sold (MLS) $33,400 SWVAR
• 2021-08-06 Listed $38,900 SWVAR
• 2017-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records
• 2016-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $372 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.