1759 Valencia Ave

Holly Hill, FL 32174

$239,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,206 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,122/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,256
• Tax + insurance: −$387
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $34/mo
• Annual: $403/yr
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.60%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $67,060

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($403/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (11.4% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $212k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#325 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 29% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,962 of 2,144 statewide, top 92%, 636 students, 83% FRL); David C. Hinson Sr. Middle School (math 52% / reading 49%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 950 students, 52% FRL); Mainland High School (math 30% / reading 37%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,855 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 51% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 989 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.