705 Plains Rd

Winthrop, ME 04352

$199,900D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 972 sqft · Built 1840 · SingleFamily · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,333/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $-262/mo
• Annual: $-3,141/yr
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.61%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-262 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (33.3% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $133k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#76 in ME) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• RSU 38 (rural): math 89% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #27 of 112 in ME (top 24%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: built in 1840 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.0% in Winthrop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1840 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.