159 Holland Rd

Ormond-by-the-Sea, FL 32176

$429,900F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,137 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,248/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,254
• Tax + insurance: −$545
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-1,024/mo
• Annual: $-12,284/yr
• Cap rate: 3.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.20%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $120,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (42.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (47.7% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (47.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beachside Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 556 students, 66% FRL); Seabreeze High School (math 31% / reading 56%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 1,654 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $430k implies a 389% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.