8916 Eloise Ln

Shoal Creek Estates, MO 64804

$159,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1970 · Other · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,367/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $95/mo
• Annual: $1,142/yr
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.56%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (14.0% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $137k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#203 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Neosho School District (town): math 36% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #125 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: George Washington Carver Elem. (math 44% / reading 56%, grade D+, #280 of 1,115 statewide, top 25%, 551 students, 49% FRL); Neosho Jr. High (math 41% / reading 48%, grade D, #113 of 391 statewide, top 31%, 748 students, 58% FRL); Neosho High (math 21% / reading 57%, grade F, #287 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 1,491 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.7%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newton County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.