8916 Eloise Ln · Shoal Creek Estates, MO 64804

$159,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Other public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1970 4.80 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3 bed 2 bath home is in need of repairs in the bathrooms but is liveable right now. Bathrooms floors will need repaired. The 4.8 acres is all timber with a history of deer and other wildlife. Paved road frontage is a great benefit and only a few miles from Joplin and Neosho. Kitchen is spacious, along with the living room is very spacious. Master bed and bath are large with a walk in closet. Living room is the newest addition to the house.

Key facts

• Paved road frontage
• Spacious kitchen
• Newest addition

Tags

• PAVED ROAD FRONTAGE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• NEWEST ADDITION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Take NN highway south of Joplin; look for Eloise Dr (8916 Eloise Ln, Joplin, MO 64804)
• Financial info: Property tax information provided but excluded
• HOA & community: HOA information not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not specified
• Security: Security details not specified
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Other water source
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story
• Construction: Construction details not specified; Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Approximately 4.8 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances not specified
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Flooring details not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Window AC units
• Interior features: One-level living; About 1,400 finished square feet
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#203 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Neosho School District (town): math 36% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #125 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: George Washington Carver Elem. (math 44% / reading 56%, grade D+, #280 of 1,115 statewide, top 25%, 551 students, 49% FRL); Neosho Jr. High (math 41% / reading 48%, grade D, #113 of 391 statewide, top 31%, 748 students, 58% FRL); Neosho High (math 21% / reading 57%, grade F, #287 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 1,491 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.7%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,709 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.56%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-12,530
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $29,573
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64804

• Rents YoY: 15.7%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,018/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,247

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $185	-5% $140	+0% $95	+5% $50	+10% $5
Rent	-10% $-13	-5% $41	+0% $95	+5% $149	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $136	base $95	+0.5pp $54	+1.0pp $12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 448-char remark
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $159,000 Active 448-char remark
3. 2021-04-29
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,018 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,542 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$525/yr (+$44/mo · 51.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,405
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,018
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,312
• − Management: −$1,312
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$1,564
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$375
• After-tax cash flow: $1,517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neosho School District
• NCES district ID: 2921810
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,574
• Composite: 35.21/100
• National rank: #4987
• State rank: #125 of 324 in MO

Livability — Shoal Creek Estates

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #203
• US rank: #10324

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Newton County · 37,016 people
• Metro: Joplin, MO
• Population (ZIP): 37,016
• Household income: $62,574
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1082.0

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,151 people
• By 2030: 58,961 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 57,609 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 54,775 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 46,140 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 34,348 · -41.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.6) · D 20.2% · R 78.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.5pp toward R · 2008: -40.1pp · 2024: -58.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.6 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+58.7 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+40.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.80%
• Current HPI: 279.4471
• Rent YoY: ▲ 15.66%
• Metro: Joplin, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2026-05-08 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-23 Listed $159,000 SOMO
• 2021-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,018 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.