16941 Luke Rd

Fort Garland, CO 81133

$29,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,376 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $972/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$152
• Tax + insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $505/mo
• Annual: $6,059/yr
• Cap rate: 27.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.62%
• DSCR: 4.32
• 1% rule: 3.35%
• Cash to close: $8,120

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $29k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $505 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($972 rent vs $29k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $200 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $340 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#364 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Sierra Grande School District No. R-30 (rural): math 20% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #148 of 176 in CO (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.
• Market conditions: 591 active listings in the ZIP.
• Costilla County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 27.2% vs local median 1.7% in Fort Garland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.