17122 Heather Ln St SE

North Yelm, WA 98597

$259,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,969/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$98
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-84/mo
• Annual: $-1,005/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.39%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $72,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $259k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (24.0% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#277 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, schools F.
• Yelm School District (rural): math 48% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #108 of 291 in WA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 431 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $259k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.4% in North Yelm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.