12 Church St

Vincentown, NJ 08060

$305,000C+

6 bd · None ba · 2,152 sqft · Built 1885 · SingleFamily · Pending · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,380/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax + insurance: −$568
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$710
• Net cashflow: $503/mo
• Annual: $6,035/yr
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.00%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $85,400

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $305k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $503 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $305k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $296k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Rancocas Valley Regional High School District (suburban): math 29% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #236 of 472 in NJ (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 10 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $305k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.5% in Vincentown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.