764 Rolan Gooch Rd

Harvest, AL 35773

$160,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Pending · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,064/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $-265/mo
• Annual: $-3,181/yr
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.10%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (33.5% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#27 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Madison County (rural): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #19 of 129 in AL (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Madison Cross Roads Elementary School (math 14% / reading 48%, grade F, #360 of 627 statewide, top 58%, 1,035 students, 59% FRL); Sparkman Middle School (math 18% / reading 53%, grade F, #81 of 257 statewide, top 33%, 859 students, 60% FRL); Sparkman High School (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #58 of 305 statewide, top 19%, 1,738 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 29% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 325 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $160k implies a 1291% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.5% in Harvest — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.