100 Smith St

Naples, TX 75568

$111,200C-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,934 sqft · Built 1942 · SingleFamily · Active · 151 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,402/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$583
• Tax + insurance: −$488
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $37/mo
• Annual: $445/yr
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.43%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $31,136

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $111k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($445/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $111k).
• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($769 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#986 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pewitt CISD (rural): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #583 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pewitt El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 405 students, 78% FRL); Pewitt J H (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 191 students, 71% FRL); Pewitt H S (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 237 students, 68% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price; built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Morris County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morris County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $111k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.