1505 W Johnson St

Denison, TX 75020

$120,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 844 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Active · 456 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,220/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$341
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-6/mo
• Annual: $-75/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-75/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (0.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 456 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#221 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Denison ISD (urban): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #315 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 485 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 7400% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Denison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 456 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?