145 Antonette Dr

Tiburon, CA 94920

$2,675,000D

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,052 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,919/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,028
• Tax + insurance: −$1,653
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,453
• Net cashflow: $-10,215/mo
• Annual: $-122,583/yr
• Cap rate: 1.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.37%
• DSCR: 0.27
• 1% rule: 0.26%
• Cash to close: $749,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.67M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10k ($-123k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $870k (67.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $692k (74.1% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.63M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $692k (74.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $188k of equity ($18k loan paydown + $170k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#247 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Tamalpais Union High (suburban): math 62% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #42 of 517 in CA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$301k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 0.3% in Tiburon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($246k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.