145 Antonette Dr · Tiburon, CA 94920

$2,675,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1955 1.19 ac lot $876/sqft · 20% below area Est $3327k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.7/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer Upper with estate potential! This is a very special place. Quiet & tucked away for privacy. Sunny swimming pool. The almost 1.2 acre lot offers beautiful water views & plenty of space to create your dream yard, gardens, play areas, maybe a sport court or an ADU (check w/ Tiburon Planning). Large 2-car garage. LOTS of parking, which is rare on this side of Tiburon. Remodeled in 1995, its floor plan functions mostly as a one-level home in that the living areas, primary suite, office nook, guest bdm & guest bath are on the main floor. Downstairs is the 3rd bdm, 3rd bath & the unfinished room (potential office, gym, play room?) REPAIRS ARE ONGOING after remediation

Key facts

• One-level home
• Sport court
• Water views

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• WATER VIEWS
• SPORT COURT
• ADU
• ONE-LEVEL HOME

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No ADU/second unit; Lot size approximately 1.193 acres; No on-site power production (solar) listed; Located in Tiburon area
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Total of 8 parking spaces; 2-car garage (side-by-side, garage faces front); Guest parking available; Paved driveway
• Security: Smoke detector; Carbon monoxide detector; Fire suppression system; Double-strapped water heater
• Utilities: Public sewer; Internet available; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories; Property listed as fixer condition
• Construction: Construction details not specified
• Exterior features: Private, dead-end lot; Back-yard fencing; Private in-ground pool with built-in features and pool cover; Decks off family room and living room with views

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; Primary suite with balcony, sitting area and multiple walk-in closets
• Flooring: Wood and other flooring
• Bathrooms: 4 bathrooms total (3 full, 1 partial); Primary bathroom with double sinks, tub, shower stall and window
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood and other flooring; Unfinished basement; Formal dining area; Bonus room, office, storage, family room and living room (both with deck access and views); 1 wood-burning fireplace in the living room; Smoke detector, carbon monoxide detector and fire suppression system; Double-strapped water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.67M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10k ($-123k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $870k (67.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $692k (74.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $692k (74.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 0.3% in Tiburon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#247 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Tamalpais Union High (suburban): math 62% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #42 of 517 in CA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($246k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $188k of equity ($18k loan paydown + $170k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$301k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.63M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $691,907 (74.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.26% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.37%
• DSCR: 0.27
• GRM: 32.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,326,988
• List price: $2,675,000
• Delta: -12.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 Jamaica St	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,087 (+1%)	8mo	$3,450,000	$1,118	70
228 Trinidad Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,702 (-12%)	12mo	$3,250,000	$1,203	54
205 Martinique Ave	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,808 (-8%)	12mo	$3,675,000	$1,309	52
3 Mateo Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,831 (-7%)	14mo	$4,280,000	$1,512	44
139 Trinidad Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,600 (-15%)	5mo	$2,950,000	$1,135	43
88 Trinidad Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	3,202 (+5%)	23mo	$2,800,000	$874	42
94 Trinidad Dr	0.51mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,436 (+13%)	12mo	$3,750,000	$1,091	38
10 Mateo Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5	2,597 (-15%)	10mo	$2,300,000	$886	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.34% appreciation · 5.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $192,281
• Equity at exit: $1,739,118

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $1,099,387
• Equity at exit: $3,204,670

Cash invested: $749,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94920

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 32.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,028
• Tax from tax record: −$539 /mo · $6,465/yr
• Insurance: −$1,115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,453
• Net cashflow: $-10,215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $19,850

Max offer price $870,428

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $668,750
• Closing costs: $80,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5002 Paradise Dr Belvedere Tiburon, CA	4.0	2.5	3335	$17,000	$5.10	43d	1	0.31mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $2,675,000 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,675,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,675,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,675,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,675,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,675,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,675,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $2,675,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $2,675,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,675,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,675,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,675,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,465 · $539/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $20,330 · $1,694/mo
• Expected delta: +$13,865/yr (+$1,155/mo · 214.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $83,029
• − Mortgage interest: −$149,842
• − Property taxes: −$6,465
• − Insurance: −$13,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,642
• − Management: −$6,642
• − Depreciation: −$77,818
• Taxable loss: −$177,756
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$42,661
• After-tax cash flow: $-79,922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tamalpais Union High
• NCES district ID: 0638790
• Math proficiency: 62% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $106,037
• Composite: 64.66/100
• National rank: #527
• State rank: #42 of 517 in CA

Livability — Tiburon

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #247
• US rank: #8251

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tiburon, CA
• County: Marin County · 243,328 people
• City population: 12,609
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 12,609
• Household income: $246,045
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Marin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 276,379 people
• By 2030: 282,942 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 292,937 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 300,449 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 316,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 303,948 · +10.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Asian 8% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Marin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+63.9) · D 80.6% · R 16.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+63.9 2020: D+66.5 2016: D+62.9 2012: D+50.5 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.34%
• Current HPI: 265.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.54%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — BAREIS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $2,675,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,465 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.