445 Southside Dr

Vidalia, GA 30436

$324,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,662 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,628/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,699
• Tax + insurance: −$328
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-741/mo
• Annual: $-8,894/yr
• Cap rate: 3.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.80%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $90,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $324k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-741 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (40.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (49.8% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (49.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#377 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Toombs County (rural): math 36% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Toombs County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Toombs County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $216k; list at $324k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.