445 Southside Dr · Vidalia, GA 30436

$324,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,662 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2008 4.20 ac lot $195/sqft · 15% below area Est $383k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

(Imported from ABBR ListingId 18755) Beautiful 3 Br, 2 Bath home on lovely 5.85 acre lot. Privacy and seclusion just minutes from Vidalia or Lyons. If you've been looking for a country spot to call home this is a beauty. Landscaped lot with front sprinkler

Key facts

• 4.2 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2008

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family house; Residential resale; One story; Built in 2008
• Construction: Composition roof; Other construction materials; Built in 2008; No basement
• Exterior features: Porch; Other exterior features; Wooded lot; Workshop on property; Has spa (bath feature)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Separate shower; Country kitchen; One-level living; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer/dryer hook-ups (Other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $324k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-741 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (40.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (49.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (49.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#377 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Toombs County (rural): math 36% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Toombs County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Toombs County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $216k; list at $324k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,781 (49.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.80%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 16.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $383,149
• List price: $324,000
• Delta: -15.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $129,148
• Equity at exit: $291,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $417,232
• Equity at exit: $629,461

Cash invested: $90,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30436

• Home prices YoY: 9.5%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 16.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,628 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,699
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,316/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-741

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,566

Max offer price $193,071

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,000
• Closing costs: $9,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $324,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $324,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $324,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $324,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $324,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $324,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $324,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,000 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-12
    listed $324,000 New 524-char remark
18. 2021-04-07
    soldstatus $215,700
19. 2021-04-01
    soldstatus $215,700 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    (Imported from ABBR ListingId 18755) Beautiful 3 Br, 2 Bath home on lovely 5.85 acre lot. Privacy and seclusion just minutes from Vidalia or Lyons. If you've been looking for a country spot to call home this is a beauty. Landscaped lot with front sprinkler

20. 2021-01-19
    listed $219,000 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    (Imported from ABBR ListingId 18755) Beautiful 3 Br, 2 Bath home on lovely 5.85 acre lot. Privacy and seclusion just minutes from Vidalia or Lyons. If you've been looking for a country spot to call home this is a beauty. Landscaped lot with front sprinkler

21. 2014-02-28
    historical
22. 2013-09-10
    listed $184,900
23. 2013-07-31
    historical
24. 2011-07-26
    listed $169,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,316 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,981 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$664/yr (+$55/mo · 28.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,149
• − Property taxes: −$2,316
• − Insurance: −$1,620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,563
• − Management: −$1,563
• − Depreciation: −$9,425
• Taxable loss: −$15,103
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,625
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toombs County
• NCES district ID: 1305040
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,288
• Composite: 27.63/100
• National rank: #6922
• State rank: #77 of 174 in GA

Livability — Vidalia

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #377
• US rank: #19133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 17,315
• Population (ZIP): 11,547

Population outlook (Toombs County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,784 people
• By 2030: 26,312 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 25,219 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 23,733 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 19,107 · -28.7%
• By 2100: 12,922 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Toombs

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.7) · D 24.5% · R 75.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: -38.1pp · 2024: -50.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.7 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+46.9 2012: R+40.5 2008: R+38.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.28%
• Current HPI: 257.7921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+90.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Listed $324,000 GAMLS
• 2021-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $215,700 Public Records
• 2021-04-01 Sold (MLS) $215,700 GAMLS
• 2021-01-19 Listed $219,000 GAMLS
• 2014-02-28 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2013-09-10 Listed $184,900 GAMLS
• 2013-07-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2011-07-26 Listed $169,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,316 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.