178 S Long Beach Rd

Rockville Centre, NY 11570

$570,000C

None bd · 2.5 ba · 2,232 sqft · Built 1959 · MultiFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,481/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,989
• Tax + insurance: −$1,432
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,361
• Net cashflow: $699/mo
• Annual: $8,383/yr
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.25%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $159,600

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $570k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $699 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $349/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $570k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($561k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $561k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#17 in NY, #365 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Oceanside Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #75 of 590 in NY (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: School 4 (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 298 students, 20% FRL); School 9M-Oceanside Middle School (math 48% / reading 61%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 817 students, 16% FRL); School 7-Oceanside Senior High School (math 91% / reading 96%, grade A+, #131 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 1,692 students, 20% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.5% in Rockville Centre — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,481/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($157k/yr) (locally 732% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.