126 Deer Run Rd

Payne Springs, TX 75156

$69,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 472 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 240 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,242/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$14
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $498/mo
• Annual: $5,978/yr
• Cap rate: 14.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.94%
• DSCR: 2.38
• 1% rule: 1.80%
• Cash to close: $19,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $69k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 3.8% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen cabinets — Worn and in need of replacement
• Major: Bathroom fixtures — Dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: Flooring — Worn and in need of replacement
• Moderate: Paint — Faded and in need of touch-up