126 Deer Run Rd · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$69,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 472 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 240 Days on market

Built 2020 Fair condition 5,009 sqft lot $146/sqft · 7% below area $14/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GB-9197. Tiny Home getaway—a tastefully renovated portable building with a site built add on that has been transformed into a cozy and charming tiny home! Fully fenced and gated this property is nestled just a stone's throw away from Cedar Creek Lake. This delightful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is the perfect blend of comfort, affordability, and rustic charm, making it an ideal rental opportunity or a serene retreat for those looking to escape the hustle and bustle of everyday life. As you step inside, you are greeted by an inviting open-concept layout with full kitchen, bath and living area that maximizes space with a storage loft. Though this home features no traditional closets in the bedrooms, clever storage solutions ensure you’ll have plenty of room for your essentials. Each bedroom area offers its own unique character, perfect for accommodating family, friends, or guests. Don't miss the backyard as you step out onto the charming back porch, where you can sip your morning coffee or unwind after a long day, all while soaking in the tranquil surroundings. The fenced yard provides a safe space for kids or pets to play, while also offering privacy for those leisurely evenings spent outdoors. Imagine hosting summer barbecues or simply enjoying the sights and sounds of nature from your own backyard oasis. Equipped with efficient window units to keep you cool during the warm months and warm during the winter.

Key facts

• Gated property
• Full kitchen
• Fully fenced

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• GATED PROPERTY
• STONE'S THROW FROM THE LAKE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• FULL KITCHEN
• STORAGE LOFT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $69k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.94%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,896
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: -50.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $16,929
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $41,618
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,242 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $943/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$14
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $537	-5% $518	+0% $498	+5% $479	+10% $459
Rent	-10% $400	-5% $449	+0% $498	+5% $547	+10% $596
Rate	-1.0pp $533	-0.5pp $516	base $498	+0.5pp $480	+1.0pp $462

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $14 · $168/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,000 Active 240 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 239 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 238 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 237 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 236 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,000 Active 234 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,000 Active 233 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,000 Active 225 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 223 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 222 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 221 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,000 Active 220 DOM
16. 2025-11-22
    price $69,000 1447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1435 chars)

    GB-9197. Tiny Home getaway—a tastefully renovated portable building with a site built add on that has been transformed into a cozy and charming tiny home! Fully fenced and gated this property is nestled just a stone's throw away from the lake. This delightful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is the perfect blend of comfort, affordability, and rustic charm, making it an ideal rental opportunity or a serene retreat for those looking to escape the hustle and bustle of everyday life. As you step inside, you are greeted by an inviting open-concept layout with full kitchen, bath and living area that maximizes space with a storage loft. Though this home features no traditional closets in the bedrooms, clever storage solutions ensure you'll have plenty of room for your essentials. Each bedroom area offers its own unique character, perfect for accommodating family, friends, or guests. Don't miss the backyard as you step out onto the charming back porch, where you can sip your morning coffee or unwind after a long day, all while soaking in the tranquil surroundings. The fenced yard provides a safe space for kids or pets to play, while also offering privacy for those leisurely evenings spent outdoors. Imagine hosting summer barbecues or simply enjoying the sights and sounds of nature from your own backyard oasis. Equipped with efficient window units to keep you cool during the warm months and warm during the winter.

17. 2025-11-22
    price $69,000 1435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1435 chars)

    GB-9197. Tiny Home getaway—a tastefully renovated portable building with a site built add on that has been transformed into a cozy and charming tiny home! Fully fenced and gated this property is nestled just a stone's throw away from the lake. This delightful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is the perfect blend of comfort, affordability, and rustic charm, making it an ideal rental opportunity or a serene retreat for those looking to escape the hustle and bustle of everyday life. As you step inside, you are greeted by an inviting open-concept layout with full kitchen, bath and living area that maximizes space with a storage loft. Though this home features no traditional closets in the bedrooms, clever storage solutions ensure you'll have plenty of room for your essentials. Each bedroom area offers its own unique character, perfect for accommodating family, friends, or guests. Don't miss the backyard as you step out onto the charming back porch, where you can sip your morning coffee or unwind after a long day, all while soaking in the tranquil surroundings. The fenced yard provides a safe space for kids or pets to play, while also offering privacy for those leisurely evenings spent outdoors. Imagine hosting summer barbecues or simply enjoying the sights and sounds of nature from your own backyard oasis. Equipped with efficient window units to keep you cool during the warm months and warm during the winter.

18. 2025-10-21
    listed $79,500 Active 1435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1435 chars)

    GB-9197. Tiny Home getaway—a tastefully renovated portable building with a site built add on that has been transformed into a cozy and charming tiny home! Fully fenced and gated this property is nestled just a stone's throw away from the lake. This delightful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is the perfect blend of comfort, affordability, and rustic charm, making it an ideal rental opportunity or a serene retreat for those looking to escape the hustle and bustle of everyday life. As you step inside, you are greeted by an inviting open-concept layout with full kitchen, bath and living area that maximizes space with a storage loft. Though this home features no traditional closets in the bedrooms, clever storage solutions ensure you'll have plenty of room for your essentials. Each bedroom area offers its own unique character, perfect for accommodating family, friends, or guests. Don't miss the backyard as you step out onto the charming back porch, where you can sip your morning coffee or unwind after a long day, all while soaking in the tranquil surroundings. The fenced yard provides a safe space for kids or pets to play, while also offering privacy for those leisurely evenings spent outdoors. Imagine hosting summer barbecues or simply enjoying the sights and sounds of nature from your own backyard oasis. Equipped with efficient window units to keep you cool during the warm months and warm during the winter.

19. 2025-10-20
    listed $79,500 Active 1447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1447 chars)

    GB-9197. Tiny Home getaway—a tastefully renovated portable building with a site built add on that has been transformed into a cozy and charming tiny home! Fully fenced and gated this property is nestled just a stone's throw away from Cedar Creek Lake. This delightful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is the perfect blend of comfort, affordability, and rustic charm, making it an ideal rental opportunity or a serene retreat for those looking to escape the hustle and bustle of everyday life. As you step inside, you are greeted by an inviting open-concept layout with full kitchen, bath and living area that maximizes space with a storage loft. Though this home features no traditional closets in the bedrooms, clever storage solutions ensure you’ll have plenty of room for your essentials. Each bedroom area offers its own unique character, perfect for accommodating family, friends, or guests. Don't miss the backyard as you step out onto the charming back porch, where you can sip your morning coffee or unwind after a long day, all while soaking in the tranquil surroundings. The fenced yard provides a safe space for kids or pets to play, while also offering privacy for those leisurely evenings spent outdoors. Imagine hosting summer barbecues or simply enjoying the sights and sounds of nature from your own backyard oasis. Equipped with efficient window units to keep you cool during the warm months and warm during the winter.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $943 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,263 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$319/yr (+$27/mo · 33.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$943
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,193
• − Management: −$1,193
• − HOA: −$168
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $5,193
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,246
• After-tax cash flow: $4,731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen, bathrooms, and flooring. Upgrades in these areas will significantly enhance both its resale and rental potential.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — Worn and in need of replacement
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate Flooring — Worn and in need of replacement
• Moderate Paint — Faded and in need of touch-up

Value-add opportunities

• Both Replace worn carpet with new hardwood flooring — New flooring will improve both resale and rental value
• Both Replace dated bathroom fixtures with modern ones — Modern fixtures will enhance both resale and rental appeal
• Both Paint interior walls with fresh, neutral colors — Fresh paint will improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Dated and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Paint · Faded and in need of touch-up	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$36,000–130,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Replace worn carpet with new hardwood flooring — New flooring will improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Replace dated bathroom fixtures with modern ones — Modern fixtures will enhance both resale and rental appeal ↑
• Both Paint interior walls with fresh, neutral colors — Fresh paint will improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eustace ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818720
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,425
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5711
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $69,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $69,000 HCBOR
• 2025-10-21 Listed $79,500 HCBOR
• 2025-10-20 Listed $79,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $943 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.