3156 Esplanade #293

Chico, CA 95973

$83,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 109 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,907/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax + insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $957/mo
• Annual: $11,487/yr
• Cap rate: 20.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.43%
• DSCR: 3.20
• 1% rule: 2.30%
• Cash to close: $23,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $957 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $83k).
• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $574 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#195 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Chico Unified (urban): math 40% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #117 of 517 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shasta Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 646 students, 45% FRL); Bidwell Junior High (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 990 students, 57% FRL); Pleasant Valley High (math 54% / reading 80%, grade B, #139 of 1,170 statewide, top 13%, 1,840 students, 46% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Chico Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 2.6% in Chico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.