3156 Esplanade #293 · Chico, CA 95973

$83,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1976 $62/sqft · 7% above area Est $77k · 7% over ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.2/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 3156 Esplanade in Chico. Imagine yourself drinking coffee in the mornings on the front covered porch. New fence in the front with wood planters. This clean doublewide manufactured home is located west of town where the traffic is very light. Featuring an open floor plan. Walk into the vast living room area. A spacious kitchen perfect for entertaining and making delicious home cooked meals. Next to the dining area you will find two clean rooms with updated flooring and a bathroom. The master bedroom has a connecting bathroom that leads to the laundry room. The backdoor takes you outside to a gravel area in the back and decorative brick where you have two extra storage sheds. This is a clean home and one of the best homes at Mountain View mobile Home Community. Come take a look at this beauty.

Key facts

• Front covered porch
• Open floor plan
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• FRONT COVERED PORCH
• NEW FENCE
• WOOD PLANTERS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VAST LIVING ROOM AREA
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $957 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 2.6% in Chico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#195 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Chico Unified (urban): math 40% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #117 of 517 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $574 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,530 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.43%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $77,299
• List price: $83,000
• Delta: 7.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3156 Esplanade #253	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	5mo	$16,500	$11	74
3156 Esplanade #304	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	5mo	$50,000	$35	73
267 Camino Sur St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,334 (-1%)	6mo	$169,000	$127	72
3543 Cisco	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	6mo	$110,000	$85	66
293 Camino Sur St #10	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	13mo	$159,900	$119	66
3555 Calle Principal #87	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	8mo	$25,000	$19	65
586 Troy Ln	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	9mo	$85,000	$59	57
567 Troy Ln	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	14mo	$179,050	$143	55
3548 Calle Principal #84	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,252 (-7%)	11mo	$43,000	$34	52
3555 Cisco Way	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-4%)	20mo	$125,000	$97	52
3536 Calle Principal #3	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	17mo	$102,500	$89	43
3549 Via Medio #178	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	6mo	$87,500	$76	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $45,068
• Equity at exit: $12,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $107,960
• Equity at exit: $7,176

Cash invested: $23,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95973

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,907 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $955/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $957

Break-even live

Break-even rent $695

Max offer price $83,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,004	-5% $981	+0% $957	+5% $934	+10% $910
Rent	-10% $807	-5% $882	+0% $957	+5% $1,033	+10% $1,108
Rate	-1.0pp $999	-0.5pp $978	base $957	+0.5pp $936	+1.0pp $914

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,750
• Closing costs: $2,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
194 E Shasta Ave Unit 3B Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,900	$2.17	45d	1	0.49mi
490 Posada Way Chico, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	14d	1	0.59mi
2909 Godman Ave Unit 2909-2 Chico, CA	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,725	$1.47	45d	1	0.71mi
3365 Bodero Ln Chico, CA	3.0	2.5	1576	$2,025	$1.28	14d	1	0.72mi
3365 Bodero Ln #1 Chico, CA	3.0	2.5	1576	$1,950	$1.24	45d	4	0.72mi
583 Morgan Dr #2 Chico, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	22d	1	0.74mi
100 Penzance Ave Chico, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	890	$1,710	$1.92	14d	26	0.77mi
101 Risa Way Chico, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$1,970	$1.94	14d	1	0.80mi
1 Mayfair Dr Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	45d	1	0.90mi
482 East Ave Chico, CA	4.0	2.0	1519	$2,200	$1.45	22d	1	1.16mi
4200 Nord Hwy Chico, CA	2.0	2.0	939	$1,675	$1.78	14d	13	1.19mi
1080 E Lassen Ave Chico, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,650	$2.06	14d	10	1.21mi
64 Tara Ter Unit 64-2 Chico, CA	2.0	1.5	1048	$1,625	$1.55	45d	1	1.27mi
2619 Waverly Ct Chico, CA	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,400	$1.96	22d	1	1.31mi
599 East Ave Chico, CA	3.0	1.0	989	$1,750	$1.77	22d	1	1.32mi
29 Cameo Dr #2 Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	928	$1,400	$1.51	45d	1	1.35mi
2485 Pillsbury Rd Unit 2485-03 Chico, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,595	$1.68	14d	1	1.39mi
400 Mission Ranch Blvd Chico, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,775	$1.78	14d	1	1.39mi
225 Mission Serra Ter Chico, CA	2.0	2.0	1358	$2,000	$1.47	14d	1	1.44mi
390 Rio Lindo Ave Chico, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	727	$1,550	$2.13	14d	6	1.46mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $83,000 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $83,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $83,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $83,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $83,000 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $83,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $83,000 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $83,000 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $83,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $83,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $83,000 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $83,000 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $83,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $83,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $83,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $83,000 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    price $83,000 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Welcome to 3156 Esplanade in Chico. Imagine yourself drinking coffee in the mornings on the front covered porch. New fence in the front with wood planters. This clean doublewide manufactured home is located west of town where the traffic is very light. Featuring an open floor plan. Walk into the vast living room area. A spacious kitchen perfect for entertaining and making delicious home cooked meals. Next to the dining area you will find two clean rooms with updated flooring and a bathroom. The master bedroom has a connecting bathroom that leads to the laundry room. The backdoor takes you outside to a gravel area in the back and decorative brick where you have two extra storage sheds. This is a clean home and one of the best homes at Mountain View mobile Home Community. Come take a look at this beauty.

18. 2026-04-04
    price $85,000 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Welcome to 3156 Esplanade in Chico. Imagine yourself drinking coffee in the mornings on the front covered porch. New fence in the front with wood planters. This clean doublewide manufactured home is located west of town where the traffic is very light. Featuring an open floor plan. Walk into the vast living room area. A spacious kitchen perfect for entertaining and making delicious home cooked meals. Next to the dining area you will find two clean rooms with updated flooring and a bathroom. The master bedroom has a connecting bathroom that leads to the laundry room. The backdoor takes you outside to a gravel area in the back and decorative brick where you have two extra storage sheds. This is a clean home and one of the best homes at Mountain View mobile Home Community. Come take a look at this beauty.

19. 2026-03-04
    listed $94,000 Active 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Welcome to 3156 Esplanade in Chico. Imagine yourself drinking coffee in the mornings on the front covered porch. New fence in the front with wood planters. This clean doublewide manufactured home is located west of town where the traffic is very light. Featuring an open floor plan. Walk into the vast living room area. A spacious kitchen perfect for entertaining and making delicious home cooked meals. Next to the dining area you will find two clean rooms with updated flooring and a bathroom. The master bedroom has a connecting bathroom that leads to the laundry room. The backdoor takes you outside to a gravel area in the back and decorative brick where you have two extra storage sheds. This is a clean home and one of the best homes at Mountain View mobile Home Community. Come take a look at this beauty.

20. 2020-10-31
    historical
21. 2020-10-01
    listed $79,950 Active
22. 2020-08-31
    historical
23. 2020-06-17
    listed $95,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $955 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $955 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,885
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,649
• − Property taxes: −$955
• − Insurance: −$415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,831
• − Management: −$1,831
• − Depreciation: −$2,415
• Taxable income: $10,790
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,590
• After-tax cash flow: $8,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chico Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608370
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $46,223
• Composite: 46.45/100
• National rank: #2443
• State rank: #117 of 517 in CA

Livability — Chico

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #6332

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing B Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chico, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• City population: 117,007
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 39,031
• Household income: $92,813
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1230.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 4% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.94%
• Current HPI: 259.9774
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $83,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $85,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $94,000 CRMLS
• 2020-10-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-10-01 Listed $79,950 CRMLS
• 2020-08-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-06-17 Listed $95,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $955 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.