2611 Concord Way

Mendota Heights, MN 55120

$300,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Built 1992 · Townhouse · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,994/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$324
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-383/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-383/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (0.2% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $295k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#26 in MN, #828 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• West St. Paul-Mendota Hts.-Eagan (suburban): math 42% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #125 of 301 in MN (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mendota Elementary (math 87% / reading 72%, grade A, #12 of 857 statewide, top 2%, 392 students, 21% FRL); Friendly Hills Middle (math 38% / reading 52%, grade D, #113 of 258 statewide, top 45%, 735 students, 44% FRL); Two Rivers High School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C-, #87 of 471 statewide, top 22%, 1,479 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.3% in Mendota Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.