2611 Concord Way · Mendota Heights, MN 55120

$300,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Townhouse · 27 Days on market

Built 1992 Good condition 4,356 sqft lot $324/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready end unit! This Mendota Heights townhome offers privacy, flexibility, and a long list of updates that take the guesswork out of ownership. New kitchen appliances and tile (2024/2025), new flooring throughout (2023), new AC, furnace, water heater, and thermostat (2021), an insulated garage door and opener (2025), and windows replaced in 2011 mean the major systems and finishes are already handled. The bright, open layout includes an upper-level loft, perfect for a home office, guest space, or extra living area. Two bedrooms and two bathrooms offer comfortable everyday living, and there are opportunities for this unit to be rented, making it a smart option for investors as well a

Key facts

• $324 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1992

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by New Concepts Management; HOA fee $324 monthly; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, shared amenities, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Tuck-under 2-car garage (approx. 20 x 18)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Attached residential property; Two levels; Entry level main floor
• Construction: Slab foundation; Foundation area approximately 680
• Exterior features: Deck; Vinyl exterior; Lot roughly 0.1 acre (approx. 70 x 70); Association-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on the upper level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level); One half bathroom (main floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Primary bedroom walk-in closet; Patio
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-383/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.3% in Mendota Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#26 in MN, #828 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• West St. Paul-Mendota Hts.-Eagan (suburban): math 42% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #125 of 301 in MN (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mendota Elementary (math 87% / reading 72%, grade A, #12 of 857 statewide, top 2%, 392 students, 21% FRL); Friendly Hills Middle (math 38% / reading 52%, grade D, #113 of 258 statewide, top 45%, 735 students, 44% FRL); Two Rivers High School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C-, #87 of 471 statewide, top 22%, 1,479 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $295,377 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-50,403
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-45,518
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55120

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,994 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$324
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,034

Max offer price $295,377

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $72	+0% $-32	+5% $-136	+10% $-239
Rent	-10% $-268	-5% $-150	+0% $-32	+5% $86	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $119	-0.5pp $44	base $-32	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
710 Vikings Pkwy Eagan, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$2,630	$2.40	0d	6	0.43mi
720 S Plaza Way Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	2.0	1102	$3,795	$3.44	0d	5	1.29mi
725 S Plaza Way Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	2.0	1128	$3,295	$2.92	5d	5	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $324 · $3,888/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $300,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $300,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    historical $300,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,874
• − Management: −$2,874
• − HOA: −$3,888
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,240
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,258
• After-tax cash flow: $874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This townhome in Mendota Heights is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good layout and is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed for optimal resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West St. Paul-Mendota Hts.-Eagan
• NCES district ID: 2742270
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $63,769
• Composite: 42.4/100
• National rank: #3234
• State rank: #125 of 301 in MN

Livability — Mendota Heights

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #828

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mendota Heights, MN
• City population: 5,080
• Population (ZIP): 5,080

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 18% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Romanian 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.00%
• Current HPI: 222.5557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Coming Soon $300,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid