2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
576 sqft ·
Built 1997
· Manufactured
· Active
· 61 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,508/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$576
Tax + insurance
−$183
HOA
−$1,081
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$527
Net cashflow
$141/mo
Annual
$1,691/yr
Cap rate
7.83%
Cash-on-cash
5.49%
DSCR
1.24
1% rule
2.28%
Cash to close
$30,772
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $110k).
It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,145 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Roanoke Avenue School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,729 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 408 students, 46% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $32k; list at $110k implies a 243% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29